Telephone and Data Systems has exceptional free cash flow conversion at 477% of net income and a strong Piotroski health score of 8 out of 9, but forward earnings are projected to decline approximately 100% from current trailing levels as a cyclical peak unwinds — creating a forward price-to-earnings of 4,899 times versus a trailing multiple of 23 times.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Cyclical Earnings Peak Warning↓Deteriorating
- T Mobile Customer Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc (TDS) Stock Analysis
Communication Services · Telecom Services
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.37: Concentration risk — Customer: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak).
Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million broadband, video, voice, and wireless connections in 30 states) and majority-owned Array Digital Infrastructure (4,450 towers in 19 states). Revenue comes from broadband and voice... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.37: Concentration risk — Customer: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Telephone and Data Systems, Inc
About Telephone and Data Systems, Inc
Telephone and Data Systems served 1.1 million broadband, video, voice, and wireless connections through TDS Telecom across 30 states at December 31, 2025, while majority-owned Array Digital Infrastructure operated 4,450 towers in 19 states. Array sold its wireless operations and select spectrum assets to T-Mobile on August 1, 2025, for total consideration of $4,293.8 million, completing the company's pivot to a pure tower infrastructure model and concentrating Array revenue on long-term carrier lease agreements.
TDS Telecom generates subscription revenue from residential broadband, video, and voice customers plus commercial broadband and voice services for small and medium businesses, supplemented by wholesale revenues including Connect America Fund support for underserved rural markets. A multi-year fiber expansion targets speeds up to 8 Gbps in Wisconsin and the Pacific Northwest; TDS Telecom also offers wireless service through an MVNO that relies on third-party networks for delivery. Array earns long-term tower lease income via Master License Agreements at fixed day rates with periodic escalators; the company's largest tenants are T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon. Array's tenancy rate is lower than larger peers American Tower Corporation, Crown Castle Inc, and SBA Communications Corporation—a gap Array frames as leasable capacity for incremental colocation.
Show full overview
Array's revenue is now concentrated on T-Mobile following the August 2025 divestiture: the 10-K states Array's business is 'substantially dependent upon T-Mobile' under a Master License Agreement requiring 15-year minimum lease terms. At the conclusion of T-Mobile's site selection process, Array expects 800 to 1,800 towers to remain without tenants, with decommissioning costs and residual ground lease obligations not yet determinable. Additionally, DISH Wireless issued a September 2025 letter claiming its Master Lease Agreement obligations with Array are excused, creating a contested receivable with uncertain resolution.
See also: Communication Services · Telecom Services
From Telephone and Data Systems, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Telephone and Data Systems, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Is Telephone (TDS) stock gaining bullish momentum | Q4 2025: EPS Beats Forecasts - Revision Downgrade - Newser — Newser positive
- NEWS Investors brace for TDS earnings amid post-wireless transition By Investing.com - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS Vanguard Group Inc. Has $466.38 Million Stake in Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. $TDS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Earnings Preview: TDS to Report Financial Results on May 08 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
- NEWS NRI sells Rs 1 crore property, saves Rs 12.5 lakh TDS legally — how this form cut his tax to zero - financialexpress.com — financialexpress.com positive
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerT-Mobile10-K Item 1A: 'Array's business is substantially dependent upon T-Mobile, and if T-Mobile fails to meet its obligations under these leases to Array, this would have a significant adverse impact'
- MEDIUMCustomerVerizon, AT&T, T-Mobile10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of Array revenues are derived from a small number of tenants concentrated in the wireless industry including Verizon, AT&T and particularly T-Mobile'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOWTDS approved the 2026 Executive Officer Bonus Program on March 18, 2026, covering Vice Chair, all EVP and SVP officers, and President/CEO of TDS Telecom. Routine annual compensatory arrangement; no departures.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOWJoseph R. Hanley, SVP – Strategy and Corporate Development, notified TDS of his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026 or by mutual agreement. No disagreement cited. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $34.37: Concentration risk — Customer: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.55. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $42.92 (+24.9% upside). Prior stop was $32.55. Stop-loss: $32.55.
Concentration risk — Customer: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 4227.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover TDS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $51.
What does Telephone and Data Systems, Inc do?Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million broadband, video, voice,...
Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million broadband, video, voice, and wireless connections in 30 states) and majority-owned Array Digital Infrastructure (4,450 towers in 19 states). Revenue comes from broadband and voice subscriptions via TDS Telecom and long-term tower leases via Array, which sold its wireless operations to T-Mobile in August 2025.