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Telephone and Data Systems, Inc (TDS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Telecom Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak).

Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million connections in 30 states) and tower infrastructure through 82%-owned Array Digital Infrastructure (4,450 towers in 19 states), following Array's August 2025 sale of wireless operations... Read more

$40.40+12.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#29 of 40 Telecom Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield13.53%
IncomeYield0.40%(5y avg 3.31%)Payout9.41%sustainable
Stop $39.21Target $45.48(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$53.50+32.4%2 analysts
$45.48our TP
$40.40price
$53.50mean
$56

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Telephone and Data Systems, Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile
Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.8
P/E (Fwd)4981.6
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA18.4
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE6.0%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.34
Dividend0.40%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHTenantT-Mobile
    10-K Item 1A: 'Array's business is substantially dependent upon T-Mobile, and if T-Mobile fails to meet its obligations under these leases to Array, this would have a significant adverse impact on TDS'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    TDS 2026 Executive Officer Bonus Program approved by Compensation Committee on March 18, 2026. Covers Vice Chair, EVPs, SVPs, and President/CEO of TDS Telecom. Routine annual incentive plan update.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOW
    Joseph R. Hanley (SVP, Strategy and Corporate Development) notified TDS of his intention to retire effective July 1, 2026 or mutually agreed date. No disagreement cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.2
Quality Rank
4.7
Growth Rank
5.4
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $40.42Resistance $49.12

Price Targets

$39
$45
A.Upside+12.6%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 4982x vs trail 24x (209.1x)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TDS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $40.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $39.21. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TDS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.48 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $39.21. Stop-loss: $39.21.

What are the risks of investing in TDS?

Concentration risk — Tenant: T-Mobile; Earnings expected to decline ~100% (cyclical peak); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

Is TDS overvalued or undervalued?

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc trades at a P/E of 23.8 (forward 4981.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TDS?

8 analysts cover TDS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $54.

What does Telephone and Data Systems, Inc do?Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million connections in 30 states)...

Telephone and Data Systems provides communications services through TDS Telecom (1.1 million connections in 30 states) and tower infrastructure through 82%-owned Array Digital Infrastructure (4,450 towers in 19 states), following Array's August 2025 sale of wireless operations to T-Mobile. Revenue derives from regulated wireline broadband/video/voice subscriptions and tower lease income, with Array's business now substantially dependent on T-Mobile under a long-term MLA.

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