TransAlta is an independent power producer with volume accumulation and rising on-balance volume suggesting institutional buying interest, but severely declining revenue of negative 26% year-over-year and a quality score of 2.7 below the minimum threshold indicate the business is contracting faster than the stock price reflects.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Decline Quality Below Floor→Stable
- Institutional Buying Volume Signal↑Improving
- Earnings Inconsistency Erratic Results→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — TransAlta Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS TransAlta Q2 Adj. EPS $0.13 Beats $0.11 Estimate, Sales $351.789M Up From $312.815M YoY — benzinga Jul 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS TransAlta To Acquire Mountain Peak Power And Canyon Peak Power; Total Transaction Value Of $1.0B Includes The Assumption — benzinga Jun 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026 — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Full Transcript: TransAlta Q1 2026 Earnings Call — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS TransAlta Q1 Adj. EPS $0.04 Beats $0.01 Estimate, Sales $412.000M Down From $528.037M YoY — benzinga May 6, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-15T09:37:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -1.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.79: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. Prior stop was $11.99. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $13.90 (-11.5% upside). Prior stop was $11.99. Stop-loss: $11.99.
Target reached (-11.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.7), Negative free cash flow.
TransAlta Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 31.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover TAC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.
What does TransAlta Corporation do?TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro,...
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities. The Gas segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 4834 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia. The Energy Transition segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 671 MW located in the United States, as well as operates the Skookumchuck hydro facility in Centralia. The Energy Marketing segment is involved in the trading of electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. TransAlta Corporation was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.