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STEPStepStone Group Inc.Sell6.0·$40.56-0.23%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StepStone Group is delivering 56% year-over-year earnings growth and ranks as an industry growth leader with analyst targets implying 54% upside, but the business currently fails the quality minimum threshold with a Piotroski F-Score of only 4/9 and is in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Quality Floor PiotroskiStable
  • Exceptional Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • Analyst Upside 54pctStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StepStone Group Inc. (STEP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.56: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.25; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure, private debt, and real estate globally, with offices in 31 cities across 19 countries. Management and advisory fees grew from $285 million in fiscal 2021 to $926... Read more

$40.56+53.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#45 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield50.71%
IncomeYield4.06%(5y avg 2.28%)Payout167.21%at-risk
Stop $38.25Target $63.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.9:1
Analyst target$72.50+78.7%8 analysts
$63.08our TP
$40.56price
$72.50mean
$92

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.56: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.25; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA-4.9
Profit Mgn-26.9%
ROE-55.9%
Rev Growth55.8%
Beta1.30
Dividend4.06%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C6.25bearish
IV94%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop 10 clients17%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top 10 clients, which contribute to 65 separate mandates and commitments to commingled funds, comprise 17% of our total management and advisory fees.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Unprofitable operations — net margin -26.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Current Ratio
3.3
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5A.R:R 3.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Speculative
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $38.85Resistance $49.45

Price Targets

$38
$63
A.Upside+55.5%
A.R:R3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $40.56: Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 6.25; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $38.25. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STEP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.08 (+53.4% upside). Prior stop was $38.25. Stop-loss: $38.25.

What are the risks of investing in STEP?

Quality below floor (1.7 < 4.0).

Is STEP overvalued or undervalued?

StepStone Group Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STEP?

14 analysts cover STEP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $73.

What does StepStone Group Inc. do?StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure,...

StepStone Group manages $233 billion in AUM and advises on $652 billion in AUA across private equity, infrastructure, private debt, and real estate globally, with offices in 31 cities across 19 countries. Management and advisory fees grew from $285 million in fiscal 2021 to $926 million in fiscal 2026, earned from 402 bespoke SMAs and commingled funds serving pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices.

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