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Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitAI GATE: FLAGGED — 1 risk, 2 concernsModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Wait for pullback to $15.08. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.21. Engine's entry $15.08 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture capital-backed technology and life sciences companies, with over $25B in commitments since inception. Revenue comes from interest income, exit fees, and warrant/equity appreciation across... Read more

$15.21+12.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#21 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield8.65%
IncomeYield12.28%(5y avg 9.88%)Payout105.03%at-risk
Entry $15.08(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $14.45Target $16.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1Setup A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$19.36+27.3%9 analysts
$16.84our TP
$15.21price
$19.36mean
$25

Wait for pullback to $15.08. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.21. Engine's entry $15.08 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.6Qual6.7Grw5.6Mom2.0Sent7.1Ins6.5Peer5.5Tech7.0Risk6.06.0OVERALL

Recent Developments — Hercules Capital, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 4, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: CFO Seth Meyer transitions to President effective May 18, 2026. Andrew Olson appointed as new CFO effective May 18, 2026. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.6
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn59.9%
ROE15.7%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.77
Dividend12.28%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$7-54.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductApplication Software industry24%
    10-K Item 1A: '24.3% comprised investments in the "Application Software" industry'
  • MEDIUMProductDrug Discovery & Development industry23%
    10-K Item 1A: '23.3% comprised investments in the "Drug Discovery & Development" industry'
  • MEDIUMProductHealthcare Services, Other industry19%
    10-K Item 1A: '18.8% comprised investments in the "Healthcare Services, Other" industry'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Seth Meyer transitions to President effective May 18, 2026. Andrew Olson appointed as new CFO effective May 18, 2026. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.3
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.79Resistance $16.55

Price Targets

$14
$15
$17
A.Upside+10.7%
A.R:R2.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 2.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTGC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $15.08. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $15.21. Engine's entry $15.08 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $16.84 (+10.7%), stop $14.45 (−5.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.84 (+12.7% upside). Target $16.84 (+10.7%), stop $14.45 (−5.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $14.45.

What are the risks of investing in HTGC?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HTGC overvalued or undervalued?

Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.6 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HTGC?

15 analysts cover HTGC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Hercules Capital, Inc. do?Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture capital-backed technology and...

Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture capital-backed technology and life sciences companies, with over $25B in commitments since inception. Revenue comes from interest income, exit fees, and warrant/equity appreciation across 164+ portfolio companies. As an internally managed BDC, Hercules avoids external management fees.

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