Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $15.85, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.
Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed technology and life sciences companies. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its loan portfolio, managed as a non-diversified closed-end investment company... Read more
Sell if holding. At $15.85, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerApplication Software industry24%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 87.1% of the fair value of our portfolio comprised investments in five industries: 24.3% comprised investments in the "Application Software" industry'
- MEDIUMCustomerDrug Discovery & Development industry23%10-K Item 1A: '23.3% comprised investments in the "Drug Discovery & Development" industry'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $15.85, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $15.11. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.84 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $15.11. Stop-loss: $15.11.
Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).
Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HTGC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Hercules Capital, Inc. do?Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed...
Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed technology and life sciences companies. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its loan portfolio, managed as a non-diversified closed-end investment company under the 1940 Act.