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Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $15.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed technology and life sciences companies. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its loan portfolio, managed as a non-diversified closed-end investment company... Read more

$15.94+5.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#28 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $15.17Target $16.84(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$19.36+21.5%9 analysts
$16.84our TP
$15.94price
$19.36mean
$25

Sell if holding. At $15.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Margin of safety: 44%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.7%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.4
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn63.8%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth12.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend12.13%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C3.51bearish
IV75%elevated
Max Pain$6-62.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerApplication Software industry24%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 87.1% of the fair value of our portfolio comprised investments in five industries: 24.3% comprised investments in the "Application Software" industry'
  • MEDIUMCustomerDrug Discovery & Development industry23%
    10-K Item 1A: '23.3% comprised investments in the "Drug Discovery & Development" industry'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
7.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.3
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
6.9
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.28Resistance $16.08

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HTGC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $15.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $15.17. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HTGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.84 (+5.7% upside). Prior stop was $15.17. Stop-loss: $15.17.

What are the risks of investing in HTGC?

Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is HTGC overvalued or undervalued?

Hercules Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 8.4 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HTGC?

15 analysts cover HTGC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Hercules Capital, Inc. do?Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed...

Hercules Capital is an internally managed BDC providing senior secured loans to venture and institutional-backed technology and life sciences companies. Revenue comes from interest income and fees on its loan portfolio, managed as a non-diversified closed-end investment company under the 1940 Act.

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