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STAGStag Industrial, Inc.Sell5.3·$39.16+2.14%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Stag Industrial earns a Rule of 40 score of 62 and converts 187% of net income into free cash flow, reflecting elite industrial REIT cash economics, but the stock is trading above its analyst consensus price target with no near-term upside and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Rule Of 40 Cash EconomicsStable
  • Earnings Beat Consistency ReitStable
  • Industrial Property Concentration RiskStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Stag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.16 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties.

STAG Industrial is a REIT owning 601 industrial buildings across 41 U.S. states totaling approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet, with the portfolio 96.4% leased at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from leasing industrial properties, with no single tenant exceeding 2.8%... Read more

$39.16+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 16 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.98%
IncomeYield3.96%(5y avg 4.03%)Payout116.67%
Stop $37.68Target $45.03(default +15%)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$41.45+5.9%11 analysts
$45.03our TP
$39.16price
$41.45mean
$38
$45

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.16 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Stag Industrial, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202624d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.4
P/E (Fwd)44.5
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.98
Dividend3.96%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties
    10-K Item 1A: 'all our buildings were industrial properties'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.0
Bollinger
1.1
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 24d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.21Resistance $39.16

Price Targets

$38
$45
A.Upside+15.0%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (24d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STAG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $39.16 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $37.68. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.03 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $37.68. Stop-loss: $37.68.

What are the risks of investing in STAG?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

Is STAG overvalued or undervalued?

Stag Industrial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.4 (forward 44.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STAG?

17 analysts cover STAG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Stag Industrial, Inc. do?STAG Industrial is a REIT owning 601 industrial buildings across 41 U.S. states totaling approximately 120.0 million...

STAG Industrial is a REIT owning 601 industrial buildings across 41 U.S. states totaling approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet, with the portfolio 96.4% leased at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from leasing industrial properties, with no single tenant exceeding 2.8% of total annualized base rental revenue across the broadly diversified portfolio.

Related stocks: FR (First Industrial Realty Trust, ) · TRNO (Terreno Realty Corporation) · NSA (National Storage Affiliates Tru) · EGP (EastGroup Properties, Inc.) · PSA (Public Storage)
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