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STAGStag Industrial, Inc.Buy Wait5.2·$41.11+1.51%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Stag Industrial earns a Rule of 40 score of 62 and converts 187% of net income into free cash flow, reflecting elite industrial REIT cash economics, but the stock is trading above its analyst consensus price target with no near-term upside and an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Rule Of 40 Cash EconomicsStable
  • Earnings Beat Consistency ReitStable
  • Industrial Property Concentration RiskDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Stag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Industrial

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-28). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $39.05. BUY gates pass at $41.11, but concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $39.05 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

STAG Industrial is a REIT owning 601 industrial buildings across 41 U.S. states totaling approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet, with the portfolio 96.4% leased at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from leasing industrial properties, with no single tenant exceeding 2.8%... Read more

$41.11-11.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#9 of 16 REIT - Industrial
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.70%
IncomeYield3.83%(5y avg 4.03%)Payout116.67%
Entry $39.05(5% below current)Stop $37.41Target $41.76(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$41.92+2.0%12 analysts
$41.76our TP
$41.11price
$41.92mean
$40
$46

Wait for pullback to $39.05. BUY gates pass at $41.11, but concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $39.05 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.4
P/E (Fwd)46.7
Mkt Cap$8.0B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn28.3%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.98
Dividend3.83%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertyindustrial properties
    10-K Item 1A: 'all our buildings were industrial properties'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
1.4
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
3.9
P Ocf
6.5
P/OCF: 16.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.03Resistance $42.61

Price Targets

$37
$39
$42
A.Upside-11.3%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.3% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STAG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $39.05. BUY gates pass at $41.11, but concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties and analyst target reached - limited upside remaining argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $39.05 (5% below current) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $41.76 (+1.6%), stop $37.41 (−9.9%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STAG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.76 (-11.3% upside). Target $41.76 (+1.6%), stop $37.41 (−9.9%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $37.41.

What are the risks of investing in STAG?

Concentration risk — Property Type: industrial properties; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.5% away).

Is STAG overvalued or undervalued?

Stag Industrial, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.4 (forward 46.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about STAG?

18 analysts cover STAG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $42.

What does Stag Industrial, Inc. do?STAG Industrial is a REIT owning 601 industrial buildings across 41 U.S. states totaling approximately 120.0 million...

STAG Industrial is a REIT owning 601 industrial buildings across 41 U.S. states totaling approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet, with the portfolio 96.4% leased at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from leasing industrial properties, with no single tenant exceeding 2.8% of total annualized base rental revenue across the broadly diversified portfolio.

Related stocks: FR (First Industrial Realty Trust, ) · TRNO (Terreno Realty Corporation) · NSA (National Storage Affiliates Tru) · PSA (Public Storage) · SMA (SmartStop Self Storage REIT, In)
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