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SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc.Sell5.9·$37.93-1.58%
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Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. At $37.93, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Standard Motor Products, Inc. manufactures and distributes replacement automotive parts in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Poland, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Vehicle Control, Temperature Control, Nissens Automotive, and Engineered... Read more

$37.93+8.3% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#9 of 37 Auto Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.69%
IncomeYield3.48%(5y avg 3.10%)Payout33.87%sustainable
Stop $36.58Target $41.08(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$48.33+27.4%3 analysts
$41.08our TP
$37.93price
$48.33mean
$54

Sell if holding. At $37.93, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 32%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.3%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)7.7
Mkt Cap$844M
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.81
Dividend3.48%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.71Resistance $40.78

Price Targets

$37
$41
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SMP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $37.93, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $36.58. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SMP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.08 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $36.58. Stop-loss: $36.58.

What are the risks of investing in SMP?

Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is SMP overvalued or undervalued?

Standard Motor Products, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 7.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SMP?

7 analysts cover SMP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Standard Motor Products, Inc. do?Standard Motor Products, Inc. manufactures and distributes replacement automotive parts in the United States, Europe,...

Standard Motor Products, Inc. manufactures and distributes replacement automotive parts in the United States, Europe, Canada, Mexico, Poland, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Vehicle Control, Temperature Control, Nissens Automotive, and Engineered Solutions. It provides ignition, emissions, and fuel delivery systems, such as air injection and induction components, air management valves, regulators and solenoids, exhaust gas recirculation components, fuel injectors and components, fuel valves, ignition coils, connectors and sockets, modules, pumps, relays and fuses, starting and charging system parts, and vapor and purge components. The company also offers electrical switches and actuators; anti-lock brake and vehicle speed sensors, fluid level sensors, and pressure sensors comprising tire pressure monitoring, temperature sensors, advanced driver assistance systems sensors, battery cables, pigtails, and sockets; electrical wire, terminals, connectors, and tools for servicing a vehicle's electrical system; and spark plug, coil on plug boots, and ignition system accessories. In addition, it offers AC system components; other thermal components; and engine cooling, air conditioning, and engine efficiency products. Further, it provides thermal management products, sensors, switches, power distribution, electrification and electronics, injections and fuel delivery, ignition and emissions, and clamping devices for commercial and light vehicles, construction, agriculture, power sports, marine, hydraulics, and lawn and garden sectors. It serves retailers, warehouse distributors, original equipment manufacturers and their suppliers, system integrators, and original equipment service part manufacturers. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.

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