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SLMSLM CorporationSell5.7·$24.31+0.54%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

SLM Corporation earns a 31% return on equity with 45% net margins and trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 times — a high-quality credit services business at deep value — but a confirmed price downtrend, 14% short interest, and single-product private education loan concentration are meaningful headwinds.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality At Deep ValueStable
  • Private Student Loan ConcentrationStable
  • Death Cross DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

SLM Corporation (SLM) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.31 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans.

SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) originates and services Private Education Loans through Sallie Mae Bank, an industrial bank regulated by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions, the FDIC, and the CFPB. The company originated $7.4 billion in Private Education Loans in 2025,... Read more

$24.31+2.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#25 of 35 Credit Services
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.15%(5y avg 2.01%)Payout14.44%sustainable
Stop $22.67Target $24.99(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$28.73+18.2%11 analysts
$24.99our TP
$24.31price
$28.73mean
$23
$35

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.31 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About SLM Corporation

About SLM Corporation

Sallie Mae Bank held $29.7 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, with $20.4 billion concentrated in Private Education Loans (held for investment) and $21.5 billion in total deposits; the Bank is regulated by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions, the FDIC, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. SLM Corporation, the Bank's parent, originated $7.4 billion of Private Education Loans in 2025 — a 6% increase over 2024 — serving more families than any other private student loan lender in the United States.

SLM generates net interest income from Private Education Loans priced against its cost of online deposit funding. The flagship Smart Option Student Loan offers three in-school repayment variants; more than half of 2025 originations used interest-only or fixed-payment in-school options, which carry lower rates and reduce total borrower cost. Approximately 92.8% of 2025 originations were cosigned, with average FICO scores of 755 at origination, supporting a net charge-off rate of 2.15% of average loans in repayment in 2025. ABS securitizations totaling $4.9 billion — 24% of the held-for-investment portfolio — supplement deposit funding and provide match-funding extension. The passage of H.R.1 in July 2025 caps federal Grad PLUS loan programs effective July 1, 2026, expected to shift graduate borrowers toward Private Education Loans, though the company notes this may also attract competition from Citizens Financial Group, PNC Bank, SoFi Technologies, and College Ave.

Show full overview

Sallie Mae Bank's deposit base is primarily concentrated in online deposit products — high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit — exposing funding costs to rate competition from FinTechs and, beginning in 2025, from stablecoin issuers operating under the GENIUS Act. The 10-K notes that paid search marketing by bank competitors and algorithmic changes at deposit information aggregators may reduce the Bank's ability to attract new depositors at competitive cost. With Private Education Loan delinquencies at 4.0% of loans in repayment at December 31, 2025, any credit quality deterioration in an elevated interest rate environment could weigh on both net interest margin and the Bank's ability to distribute capital to the parent.

See also: Financial Services · Credit Services

From SLM Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — SLM Corporation

Generated 2026-07-26T09:23:02Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.7
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn43.6%
ROE30.3%
Rev Growth8.1%
Beta
Dividend2.15%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioPrivate Education Loans
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71 percent of our total assets, and 83 percent of our total assets excluding cash and cash equivalents, were comprised of Private Education Loans'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioonline deposit products
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our deposit funding base is primarily concentrated in online deposit products, including high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    On April 22, 2026, Board appointed existing CFO Peter M. Graham as Co-President and Chief Financial Officer, and existing COO Kerri A. Palmer as Co-President and Head of Financial Services, effective immediately. Both retained their prior executive roles; no reason cited for restructuring.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
4.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
4.1
Volume
9.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.00Resistance $26.14

Price Targets

$23
$25
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SLM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.31 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $22.67. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SLM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.99 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $22.67. Stop-loss: $22.67.

What are the risks of investing in SLM?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

Is SLM overvalued or undervalued?

SLM Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.7 (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SLM?

15 analysts cover SLM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $29.

What does SLM Corporation do?SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) originates and services Private Education Loans through Sallie Mae Bank, an industrial...

SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) originates and services Private Education Loans through Sallie Mae Bank, an industrial bank regulated by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions, the FDIC, and the CFPB. The company originated $7.4 billion in Private Education Loans in 2025, with $20.3 billion outstanding, funded primarily through $21.5 billion in online deposits and $4.9 billion in ABS structures.

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