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SLM Corporation (SLM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%).

SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) is the largest private student loan lender, originating $7.4B of Private Education Loans in 2025 and holding a $20.3B portfolio at year-end. Funded primarily via $21.5B in deposits at Sallie Mae Bank; serves 2,100+ higher education institution... Read more

$21.46+17.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#18 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.38%(5y avg 1.98%)Payout14.44%sustainable
Stop $20.30Target $25.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$29.00+35.1%11 analysts
$25.23our TP
$21.46price
$29.00mean
$35

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — SLM Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn44.9%
ROE30.9%
Rev Growth2.5%
Beta1.02
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfolioPrivate Education Loans71%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 71 percent of our total assets, and 83 percent of our total assets excluding cash and cash equivalents, were comprised of Private Education Loans'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfolioonline deposit funding concentration
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our deposit funding base is primarily concentrated in online deposit products, including high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-27Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Graham (CFO) and Kerri Palmer (COO) appointed as Co-Presidents of SLM Corporation effective April 22, 2026. Graham retains CFO title; Palmer becomes Co-President and Head of Financial Services. No departures; compensatory arrangement changes noted.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.1
Macd
0.3
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.1
Earnings Growth
4.0
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
33 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.93Resistance $24.62

Price Targets

$20
$25
A.Upside+17.6%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SLM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $21.46 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $20.30. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SLM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.23 (+17.6% upside). Prior stop was $20.30. Stop-loss: $20.30.

What are the risks of investing in SLM?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: Private Education Loans (71.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is SLM overvalued or undervalued?

SLM Corporation trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SLM?

15 analysts cover SLM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $29.

What does SLM Corporation do?SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) is the largest private student loan lender, originating $7.4B of Private Education Loans...

SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) is the largest private student loan lender, originating $7.4B of Private Education Loans in 2025 and holding a $20.3B portfolio at year-end. Funded primarily via $21.5B in deposits at Sallie Mae Bank; serves 2,100+ higher education institution partners. As of Dec 31, 2025, Private Education Loans represented 71% of total assets (83% excluding cash).

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