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SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.Sell5.5·$24.56+0.78%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Smithfield Foods is an attractively valued packaged foods company trading at 10x forward earnings with a strong earnings beat streak, but weak revenue growth, a 31% margin of safety that has already been consumed, and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 7.71 signal that institutional hedging activity is significant.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Forward PeStable
  • Strong Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Weak Growth ProfileStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $24.56. Weak growth.

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork across three U.S. segments—Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog Production—plus operations in Mexico and a bioscience unit, employing approximately 32,000 people in the U.S. and 2,500 in Mexico across 38 processing plants in... Read more

$24.56+11.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#10 of 32 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.52%
IncomeYield5.08%Payout41.34%sustainable
Stop $23.44Target $27.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$31.58+28.6%6 analysts
$27.48our TP
$24.56price
$31.58mean
$35

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $24.56. Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 36%
Risks
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE15.0%
Rev Growth0.8%
Beta
Dividend5.08%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.58bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Earnings Growth
3.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
6.3
Value Rank
7.0
GatesMomentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.16Resistance $27.09

Price Targets

$23
$27
A.Upside+11.9%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts11
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$32

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $24.56. Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.44. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.48 (+11.8% upside). Prior stop was $23.44. Stop-loss: $23.44.

What are the risks of investing in SFD?

Weak growth.

Is SFD overvalued or undervalued?

Smithfield Foods, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SFD?

11 analysts cover SFD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Smithfield Foods, Inc. do?Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork across three U.S. segments—Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog...

Smithfield Foods produces packaged meats and fresh pork across three U.S. segments—Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog Production—plus operations in Mexico and a bioscience unit, employing approximately 32,000 people in the U.S. and 2,500 in Mexico across 38 processing plants in 18 states. Packaged Meats contributed 56% of consolidated sales and 85% of operating profit in fiscal 2025, with Walmart accounting for 15% of consolidated sales.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · POST (Post Holdings, Inc.) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company)
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