Rapid7's perfect earnings beat streak and strong cash conversion are increasingly offset by falling analyst estimates, a confirmed price downtrend, and a negative risk-adjusted asymmetry ratio, consistent with a call to consider reducing the position.
Thesis pillars
- Excellent Cash Conversion Despite Quality Gaps→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Falling Analyst Estimates→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.64 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5.
Rapid7 is a global cybersecurity operations software provider whose Command Platform unifies exposure management, threat detection, and managed detection and response (MDR) services for security operations teams. The company generated $859.8 million in revenue in 2025, up from... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.64 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUMBoard appointed Wael Mohamed as CEO effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Corey Thomas, who becomes Executive Chairman; both continue serving as directors. Clean handoff with a named successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Revenue shrinking — -0.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.64 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $9.82. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $10.53 (-0.3% upside). Prior stop was $9.82. Stop-loss: $9.82.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.5): -1.5; Weak overall score: 4.2/10.
Rapid7, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.5 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover RPD with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $7.
What does Rapid7, Inc. do?Rapid7 is a global cybersecurity operations software provider whose Command Platform unifies exposure management,...
Rapid7 is a global cybersecurity operations software provider whose Command Platform unifies exposure management, threat detection, and managed detection and response (MDR) services for security operations teams. The company generated $859.8 million in revenue in 2025, up from $535.4 million in 2021 (a 13% CAGR), with recurring revenue at 96% of total revenue, serving more than 11,500 customers in 150 countries including 36% of the Fortune 100.