Rivian is an early-stage electric vehicle manufacturer with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and 24% free cash flow losses relative to revenue, but has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and maintains strong positive news sentiment with an LLM sentiment score of +0.44.
Thesis pillars
- Supply Chain Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Earnings Beat In Loss Phase↓Deteriorating
- Positive News Momentum↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.84: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Rivian Automotive manufactures battery-electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois plant — capacity up to 215,000 units annually across R1T, R1S, and Electric Delivery Van platforms — selling directly to consumer and commercial customers in two segments: Automotive and Software... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.84: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 10 Consumer Discretionary Stocks With Whale Alerts In Today’s Session — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Tesla Hits 11-Month Low: 'Patience Required,' Says Analyst — benzinga Jul 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Ross Gerber Says EVs Can Reduce Oil Dependence, Emissions and Global Conflicts: 'Say No To War Over Oil' — benzinga Jul 18, 2026 positive
- NEWS What Is Going on With Rivian Stock on Wednesday? — benzinga Jul 15, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on Rivian Automotive, Raises Price Target to $13 — benzinga Jul 14, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerone customer affiliate of principal stockholder10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our automotive revenues has been from one customer that is an affiliate of one of our principal stockholders'
- MEDIUMCustomerVolkswagen Group10-K Item 1A: 'a significant portion of our software and services revenues has been from Volkswagen Group'
- HIGHSuppliersingle- or limited-source suppliers10-K Item 1: 'hundreds of mostly single- or limited-source suppliers, for which no immediate or readily available alternative supplier exists'
- MEDIUMSupplierbattery raw materials (lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt)10-K Item 1: 'Battery raw materials, including lithium, nickel, graphite, and cobalt, represent one of the most vulnerable parts of our supply chain'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.84: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.73. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.89 (+6.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.73. Stop-loss: $14.73.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single- or limited-source suppliers; Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).
Rivian Automotive, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
34 analysts cover RIVN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Rivian Automotive, Inc. do?Rivian Automotive manufactures battery-electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois plant — capacity up to 215,000 units...
Rivian Automotive manufactures battery-electric vehicles at its Normal, Illinois plant — capacity up to 215,000 units annually across R1T, R1S, and Electric Delivery Van platforms — selling directly to consumer and commercial customers in two segments: Automotive and Software and Services. Amazon holds an initial order of 100,000 EDVs globally; a joint venture with Volkswagen Group licenses Rivian's software and electrical architecture across VW brands.