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RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.Sell5.1·$19.07-0.73%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Riot Platforms operates a cash-burning Bitcoin mining business with a quality score of 2.1 below the minimum threshold, trading above analyst consensus targets with 18% short interest and a put/call ratio of 3.42, making the risk profile highly unfavorable regardless of the Bitcoin price direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Burn Quality Floor BreachImproving
  • Extreme Bearish PositioningImproving
  • Earnings Volatility PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.07: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality.

Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW) and Kentucky (~137 MW), with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate at December 31, 2025, mining 5,686 bitcoin in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from block rewards... Read more

$19.07+52.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#44 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-10.07%
Stop $17.68Target $29.08(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$32.31+69.4%21 analysts
$29.08our TP
$19.07price
$32.31mean
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.07: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16

Recent Developments — Riot Platforms, Inc.

Generated 2026-08-16T18:22:07Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-20.3
Mkt Cap$7.1B
EV/EBITDA-8.4
Profit Mgn-196.3%
ROE-48.2%
Rev Growth13.9%
Beta3.85
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV90%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -196.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.8
Cash-burning: FCF -107% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
3.4

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.13Resistance $25.17

Price Targets

$18
$29
A.Upside+52.9%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.07: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.5:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.68. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RIOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.08 (+52.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.68. Stop-loss: $17.68.

What are the risks of investing in RIOT?

Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is RIOT overvalued or undervalued?

Riot Platforms, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIOT?

28 analysts cover RIOT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Riot Platforms, Inc. do?Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400...

Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW) and Kentucky (~137 MW), with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate at December 31, 2025, mining 5,686 bitcoin in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from block rewards under a Full-Pay-Per-Share mining pool arrangement plus engineering services. In January 2026, Riot signed a 10-year data center lease with AMD for 25 MW at Rockdale.

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