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Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.54; Below-average business quality.

Riot Platforms is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining and data center company with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate across large facilities in Rockdale (700MW) and Corsicana (400MW+), Texas, plus an Engineering segment. It mined 5,686 bitcoin in 2025 and is expanding into AI/HPC... Read more

$22.89+11.1% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#39 of 40 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-5.02%
Stop $21.20Target $25.34(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$24.92+8.9%19 analysts
$25.34our TP
$22.89price
$24.92mean
$13
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.54; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Riot Platforms, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: bitcoin
Concentration risk — Supplier: MicroBT
Target reached (-1.6% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-38.2
Mkt Cap$8.9B
EV/EBITDA-29.2
Profit Mgn-132.8%
ROE-32.5%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta3.74
DividendNone
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.54bearish
IV90%elevated
Max Pain$32+37.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditybitcoin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to achieve profitability is largely dependent on the price of bitcoin, which has historically been volatile.'
  • HIGHSupplierMicroBT
    10-K Item 1: 'long-term master purchase and sales agreement... with MicroBT Electronics Technology Co., LTD... to secure the long-term supply of state-of-the-art immersion miners from MicroBT'
  • HIGHGeographicDallas-Austin corridor of Texas
    10-K Item 1: 'our substantial and geographically concentrated energy portfolio in the Dallas-Austin corridor of Texas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
1.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -132.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
2.5
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Cash-burning: FCF -68% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
1.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.4
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.31Resistance $25.86

Price Targets

$21
$25
A.Upside+10.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.54; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.20. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the RIOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.34 (+11.1% upside). Prior stop was $21.20. Stop-loss: $21.20.

What are the risks of investing in RIOT?

Concentration risk — Commodity: bitcoin; Concentration risk — Supplier: MicroBT; Target reached (-1.6% upside).

Is RIOT overvalued or undervalued?

Riot Platforms, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -38.2). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIOT?

25 analysts cover RIOT with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Riot Platforms, Inc. do?Riot Platforms is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining and data center company with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate...

Riot Platforms is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining and data center company with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate across large facilities in Rockdale (700MW) and Corsicana (400MW+), Texas, plus an Engineering segment. It mined 5,686 bitcoin in 2025 and is expanding into AI/HPC data center leasing.

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