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RIOTRiot Platforms, Inc.Sell3.7·$22.76+2.94%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Riot Platforms operates a cash-burning Bitcoin mining business with a quality score of 2.1 below the minimum threshold, trading above analyst consensus targets with 18% short interest and a put/call ratio of 3.42, making the risk profile highly unfavorable regardless of the Bitcoin price direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Burn Quality Floor BreachStable
  • Extreme Bearish PositioningStable
  • Earnings Volatility PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.76: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.58; Below-average business quality.

Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW) and Kentucky (~137 MW), with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate at December 31, 2025, mining 5,686 bitcoin in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from block rewards... Read more

$22.76+14.7% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#48 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-5.33%
Stop $21.27Target $26.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$29.15+28.1%20 analysts
$26.23our TP
$22.76price
$29.15mean
$20
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.76: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.58; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — Riot Platforms, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-37.4
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA-27.6
Profit Mgn-132.8%
ROE-32.5%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta3.81
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.58bearish
IV106%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
1.5
Growth Rank
1.6

Unprofitable operations — net margin -132.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
2.5
Moat
3.9
Current Ratio
4.2
Piotroski F
4.4
Cash-burning: FCF -68% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 9.9% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
0.0
Short Interest
1.9
Put Call
2.8
Days To Cover
7.2
Debt Equity
8.5
High short interest justified: 16%Elevated put/call: 1.58High IV: 106%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.4
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.58Resistance $30.32

Price Targets

$21
$26
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RIOT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.76: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.58; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.27. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the RIOT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.23 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $21.27. Stop-loss: $21.27.

What are the risks of investing in RIOT?

Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).

Is RIOT overvalued or undervalued?

Riot Platforms, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -37.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RIOT?

27 analysts cover RIOT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Riot Platforms, Inc. do?Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400...

Riot Platforms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining and data center facilities in Texas (Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW) and Kentucky (~137 MW), with 38.5 EH/s deployed hash rate at December 31, 2025, mining 5,686 bitcoin in 2025. Revenue comes primarily from block rewards under a Full-Pay-Per-Share mining pool arrangement plus engineering services. In January 2026, Riot signed a 10-year data center lease with AMD for 25 MW at Rockdale.

Related stocks: FUTU (Futu Holdings Limited) · EVR (Evercore Inc.) · VIRT (Virtu Financial, Inc.) · BMNR (BitMine Immersion Technologies,) · BGC (BGC Group, Inc.)
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