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RDWRRadware Ltd.Sell5.9·$29.34-1.15%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Radware has beaten earnings in three of the last four quarters with strong free cash flow conversion of 166% of net income and a solid Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — but the stock is priced above analyst targets with negative price asymmetry, and despite these operational strengths, the Rule of 40 score of only 21 indicates the combined growth and profitability profile does not meet the threshold for elite software business classification.

Thesis pillars

  • Rule Of 40 Below ThresholdStable
  • Strong Free Cash Flow ConversionStable
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Radware Ltd. (RDWR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Radware Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets cyber security and application delivery solutions for cloud, on-premises, and software defined data centers. The company operates in two segments, Radware's Core Business and The Hawks' Business.... Read more

$29.34-11.6% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#43 of 103 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.89%
Stop $27.29Target $30.33(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$30.50+4.0%2 analysts
$30.33our TP
$29.34price
$30.50mean
$27
$34

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)74.2
P/E (Fwd)21.8
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA50.3
Profit Mgn5.3%
ROE4.7%
Rev Growth10.9%
Beta0.84
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV84%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.9
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.15Resistance $30.95

Price Targets

$27
$30
A.Upside-11.6%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RDWR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.34 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $27.29. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RDWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.33 (-11.6% upside). Prior stop was $27.29. Stop-loss: $27.29.

What are the risks of investing in RDWR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is RDWR overvalued or undervalued?

Radware Ltd. trades at a P/E of 74.2 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RDWR?

9 analysts cover RDWR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $31.

What does Radware Ltd. do?Radware Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets cyber security and application...

Radware Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets cyber security and application delivery solutions for cloud, on-premises, and software defined data centers. The company operates in two segments, Radware's Core Business and The Hawks' Business. It offers cloud application protection service, cloud WAF, bot manager, API protection, web DDoS protection, client-side protection, threat intelligence, Kubernetes WAAP, and Alteon integrated WAF; cloud DDoS protection service, web DDoS protection defencepro X, cyber controller, AI SOC Xpert, and firewall-as-a-service; and Alteon, linkproof NG, and SSL inspection services. The company serves healthcare, government, online business, SaaS, education, open banking, MSSP solutions, and financial services through independent distributors, which include value added resellers, original equipment manufacturers, and system integrators. It operates in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. Radware Ltd. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

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