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QDELQuidelOrtho CorporationSell4.9·$14.20-5.90%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

QuidelOrtho is an attractively valued diagnostics company with a forward P/E of 6.0x and a strong recent earnings track record, but high short interest of 24%, declining revenue of -10%, and a market cap below the $1 billion investable threshold create significant headwinds that must be resolved before the value opportunity can be realized.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Investable Market CapDeteriorating
  • Deep Value Forward PeDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Streak RecoveryDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

QuidelOrtho Corporation (QDEL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Devices

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 9.86; Below-average business quality.

QuidelOrtho develops and sells in-vitro diagnostic instruments and tests across four business units — Labs, Molecular Diagnostics, Point of Care, and Transfusion Medicine — serving customers in more than 140 countries through direct sales and distributors. Respiratory... Read more

$14.20-12.8% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#52 of 59 Medical Devices
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield14.97%
Stop $13.30Target $17.68(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$14.67+3.3%3 analysts
$17.68our TP
$14.20price
$14.67mean
$12
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 9.86; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16

Recent Developments — QuidelOrtho Corporation

Generated 2026-08-16T22:12:07Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single and sole source suppliers
Target reached (-12.8% upside)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$981M
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn-39.2%
ROE-45.9%
Rev Growth2.8%
Beta0.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C9.86bearish
IV121%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWProductrespiratory products15%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales of our respiratory products accounted for approximately 15% of our total revenues for the year ended December 28, 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle and sole source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'our reliance on a small number of contract manufacturers and a large number of single and sole source suppliers'
  • MEDIUMCustomerkey distributors
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on certain key distributors for the sales of some of our products'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Micah Young as CFO effective July 6, 2026, succeeding Joseph M. Busky, who previously announced plans to retire (disclosed February 13, 2026). Busky continues in his role through the effective date under a transition and retirement agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Volatile — 9.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.9
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Debt Equity
3.5
Beta
8.8
High short interest justified: 26%Elevated put/call: 9.86High IV: 121%Above max pain $5Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -39.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Moat
3.9
Gross Margin
5.0
Fcf Quality
5.1
Current Ratio
5.2
Piotroski F
5.6
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 5%, FCF yield 15.0%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
1.6
Value Rank
9.7
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.41Resistance $18.04

Price Targets

$13
$18
A.Upside-12.8%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QDEL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.20: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 9.86; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $13.30. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the QDEL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.68 (-12.8% upside). Prior stop was $13.30. Stop-loss: $13.30.

What are the risks of investing in QDEL?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single and sole source suppliers; Target reached (-12.8% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is QDEL overvalued or undervalued?

QuidelOrtho Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QDEL?

8 analysts cover QDEL with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $15.

What does QuidelOrtho Corporation do?QuidelOrtho develops and sells in-vitro diagnostic instruments and tests across four business units — Labs, Molecular...

QuidelOrtho develops and sells in-vitro diagnostic instruments and tests across four business units — Labs, Molecular Diagnostics, Point of Care, and Transfusion Medicine — serving customers in more than 140 countries through direct sales and distributors. Respiratory diagnostics products, including the QuickVue and Sofia platforms, accounted for approximately 15% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, while the company winds down its U.S. donor-screening portfolio, expected substantially complete by the first half of 2026.

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