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PHARPharming Group N.V.Sell4.3·$12.62-4.18%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Pharming Group is a small-cap biotech below the minimum investable market cap of $1 billion, with declining revenue of -8% but an exceptional Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, strong free cash flow conversion, and analyst targets implying 128% upside if momentum recovers.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Investable Market CapDeteriorating
  • Revenue Decline Momentum WeaknessDeteriorating
  • High Piotroski Cashflow QualityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Pharming Group N.V. (PHAR) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ShortModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~64% (cyclical peak); Weak overall score: 4.3/10.

Pharming Group N.V., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes protein replacement therapies and precision medicines for the treatment of rare diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's lead product is RUCONEST, a recombinant C1... Read more

$12.62+131.5% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#232 of 254 Biotechnology
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.62%
Stop $12.19Target $29.20(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 15.5:1
Analyst target$34.35+172.2%4 analysts
$29.20our TP
$12.62price
$34.35mean
$40

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~64% (cyclical peak); Weak overall score: 4.3/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 131%
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~64% (cyclical peak)
Weak overall score: 4.3/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)70.1
P/E (Fwd)192.6
Mkt Cap$891M
EV/EBITDA20.9
Profit Mgn3.3%
ROE5.0%
Rev Growth-8.4%
Beta0.09
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -8.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.4
Declining revenue: -8%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.7
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 15.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
20 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.57Resistance $14.79

Price Targets

$12
$29
A.Upside+131.5%
A.R:R15.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 193x vs trail 70x (2.7x)
! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $12.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Earnings expected to decline ~64% (cyclical peak); Weak overall score: 4.3/10. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 20, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $12.19. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PHAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.20 (+131.5% upside). Prior stop was $12.19. Stop-loss: $12.19.

What are the risks of investing in PHAR?

Earnings expected to decline ~64% (cyclical peak); Weak overall score: 4.3/10; Weak growth.

Is PHAR overvalued or undervalued?

Pharming Group N.V. trades at a P/E of 70.1 (forward 192.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PHAR?

14 analysts cover PHAR with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Pharming Group N.V. do?Pharming Group N.V., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes protein replacement therapies and...

Pharming Group N.V., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes protein replacement therapies and precision medicines for the treatment of rare diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company's lead product is RUCONEST, a recombinant C1 esterase inhibitor for the treatment of acute attacks in adult and adolescent patients with acute hereditary angioedema (HAE); and Joenja (leniolisib), an oral small molecule PI3K? inhibitor for the treatment of activated phosphoinositide 3-kinase delta syndrome. It also develops Joenja, an oral small molecule PI3K? inhibitor. It has a development collaboration and license agreement with Novartis. Pharming Group N.V. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Leiden, the Netherlands.

Related stocks: CRMD (CorMedix Inc.) · ZVRA (Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.) · AUPH (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc) · ABUS (Arbutus Biopharma Corporation) · HRMY (Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I)
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