Procter & Gamble has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, generates a 31% ROE with a wide economic moat, and exhibits strong momentum with rising on-balance volume, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with -2.2% upside and carries significant geographic and supplier concentration risks.
Thesis pillars
- Roe Quality Compounding→Stable
- Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat→Stable
- Geographic Supplier Concentration→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.
Procter & Gamble makes, markets, and distributes daily-use branded consumer products across beauty, grooming, health care, and fabric and home care categories, sold in about 180 countries. The company sells mainly through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, and grocery and club... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Sales to Walmart Inc. and its affiliates make up approximately 16% of Procter & Gamble's total sales, with the company's top ten customers together accounting for 43% of net sales in fiscal 2025. P&G sells daily-use branded products in about 180 countries and territories, operating in roughly 70 countries, where non-U.S. operations generate more than 50% of annual net sales. The company employed approximately 109,000 people as of June 30, 2025, with 49% in manufacturing roles.
P&G generates revenue through branded product sales spanning categories such as beauty, grooming, health care, and fabric and home care, distributed through mass merchandisers, e-commerce and social-commerce channels, grocery and club stores, drug stores, and specialty beauty retailers, competing against both branded rivals and retailers' private-label products. The company relies on continued research and development investment and consumer insights to invent new categories and refine existing products, competing on product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution, and value across roughly 70 countries of operation. Trade terms and shelf-space negotiations with large retail customers directly influence pricing and profitability, while third-party contract manufacturers, distributors, and commercial banking partners support day-to-day operations globally.
Show full overview
Input costs are exposed to named commodity categories rather than a diversified basket: the 10-K specifically flags petroleum-derived resins and pulp-based paper materials, alongside tariffs, transportation, energy, pensions, and healthcare costs, as fluctuation sources tied to broader inflationary pressure. Almost all raw and packaging materials are purchased from third parties, and the company discloses that some of these suppliers operate on a single-source basis, with certain sole supplier or sole manufacturing plant arrangements embedded in its supply chain optimization strategy — a structural dependency the filing says could interrupt product supply if disrupted by labor disputes, natural disasters, or cybersecurity incidents at a supplier's site.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
From Procter & Gamble Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-05Recent Developments — Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Analysts recommend buying Procter & Gamble on the post-earnings dip (PG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
Generated 2026-09-05T20:56:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart16%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and its affiliates represent approximately 16% of our total sales in 2025 and 2024 and 15% in 2023.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers43%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for 43% of our total net sales in 2025, 42% in 2024 and 40% in 2023.'
- HIGHGeographicoutside the U.S.10-K Item 1A: 'our operations outside the U.S. generate more than 50% of our annual net sales.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1: 'Almost all of the raw and packaging materials used by the Company are purchased from third parties, some of whom are single-source suppliers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $146.70, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $168.41 (+14.8%), stop $142.00 (−3.3%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $168.41 (-1.3% upside). Target $168.41 (+14.8%), stop $142.00 (−3.3%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $142.00.
Concentration risk — Geographic: outside the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Procter & Gamble Company (The) trades at a P/E of 22.2 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
37 analysts cover PG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $161.
What does Procter & Gamble Company (The) do?Procter & Gamble makes, markets, and distributes daily-use branded consumer products across beauty, grooming, health...
Procter & Gamble makes, markets, and distributes daily-use branded consumer products across beauty, grooming, health care, and fabric and home care categories, sold in about 180 countries. The company sells mainly through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, and grocery and club stores, employing approximately 109,000 people, with Walmart at about 16% of total sales and its top ten customers at 43% of net sales.