Procter & Gamble has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 recent quarters, generates a 31% ROE with a wide economic moat, and exhibits strong momentum with rising on-balance volume, but the stock is priced above analyst targets with -2.2% upside and carries significant geographic and supplier concentration risks.
Thesis pillars
- Roe Quality Compounding→Stable
- Perfect Beat Streak Wide Moat↓Deteriorating
- Geographic Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers.
Procter & Gamble is a multinational consumer goods company selling branded household and personal care products in about 180 countries and territories, manufactured through operations in roughly 70 countries. Walmart accounted for approximately 16% of total sales in fiscal 2025,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
About Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Procter & Gamble sold products in about 180 countries and territories in fiscal 2025, with operations outside the U.S. generating more than 50% of annual net sales. Walmart Inc. and its affiliates accounted for approximately 16% of total sales, and the company's top ten customers together represented 43% of total net sales — up from 40% in fiscal 2023 — while the company employed approximately 109,000 people, 49% of them in manufacturing roles.
P&G sells its portfolio of daily-use branded products through mass merchandisers, e-commerce and social commerce channels, grocery and membership club stores, drug and department stores, specialty beauty retailers, and direct-to-consumer channels, competing against both branded rivals and retailers' private-label products. The company sources almost all of its raw and packaging materials from third-party suppliers — some of them single-source — while manufacturing certain chemical raw materials itself; fuel, natural gas, and derivative products are also significant commodity inputs for both production and transportation. P&G's ability to meet customer needs and cost targets depends in part on maintaining sole-supplier and sole-manufacturing-plant arrangements as part of its broader supply chain optimization strategy, meaning a disruption at a single site can ripple across multiple brands rather than being contained to one product line. Growth also depends on continued investment in research and development and marketing to sustain premium pricing and brand loyalty against private-label and emerging competitors.
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P&G's supply chain concentration compounds its currency exposure: the 10-K discloses certain sole-supplier and sole-manufacturing-plant arrangements as a named element of its cost-reduction strategy, meaning any single-site disruption could interrupt product supply across the diversified portfolio it depends on for balanced growth. That structural risk sits on top of a business where more than half of net sales already originate outside the U.S. and get translated back into U.S. dollars for reporting, so a supply disruption in one country and adverse currency movement in another can pressure results simultaneously rather than independently.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
From Procter & Gamble Company (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Procter & Gamble Company (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. This Warning Sends the Stock Lower. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Procter & Gamble Earnings Beat Estimates. Why the Stock Is Falling. - barrons.com — barrons.com positive
- NEWS Analysts recommend buying Procter & Gamble on the post-earnings dip (PG:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T21:27:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart Inc.16%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to Walmart Inc. and its affiliates represent approximately 16% of our total sales in 2025 and 2024 and 15% in 2023.'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers43%10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten customers accounted for 43% of our total net sales in 2025, 42% in 2024 and 40% in 2023.'
- HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. operations10-K Item 1A: 'our operations outside the U.S. generate more than 50% of our annual net sales.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1: 'Almost all of the raw and packaging materials used by the Company are purchased from third parties, some of whom are single-source suppliers.'
- HIGHSuppliersole manufacturing plant arrangements10-K Item 1A: 'Our ability to meet our customers’ needs and achieve cost targets depends on our ability to maintain key manufacturing and supply arrangements, including execution of supply chain optimizations and certain sole supplier or sole manufacturing plant arrangements.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $167.49 (+15.0%), stop $141.34 (−3.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $167.49 (-0.7% upside). Target $167.49 (+15.0%), stop $141.34 (−3.0%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $141.34.
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. operations; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Procter & Gamble Company (The) trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
37 analysts cover PG with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $161.
What does Procter & Gamble Company (The) do?Procter & Gamble is a multinational consumer goods company selling branded household and personal care products in...
Procter & Gamble is a multinational consumer goods company selling branded household and personal care products in about 180 countries and territories, manufactured through operations in roughly 70 countries. Walmart accounted for approximately 16% of total sales in fiscal 2025, the top ten customers represented 43%, and operations outside the U.S. generated more than 50% of annual net sales.