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PAXPatria Investments LimitedSell7.0·$10.81+0.19%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Patria Investments offers a rare combination of 22% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a PEG of 0.04 — though two consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend temper near-term entry conviction.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Compounder QualityStable
  • Extreme Peg ValuationImproving
  • Industry Growth LeadershipStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.81: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with... Read more

$10.81+25.4% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#2 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.68%(5y avg 5.47%)Payout113.21%at-risk
Stop $10.30Target $13.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst target$15.57+44.0%7 analysts
$13.55our TP
$10.81price
$15.57mean
$20

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.81: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.0/10
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)7.0
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn18.1%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta0.74
Dividend5.68%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.20bearish
IV67%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.56Resistance $11.38

Price Targets

$10
$14
A.Upside+25.4%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $10.81: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $10.30. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.55 (+25.4% upside). Prior stop was $10.30. Stop-loss: $10.30.

What are the risks of investing in PAX?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PAX overvalued or undervalued?

Patria Investments Limited trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 7.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAX?

11 analysts cover PAX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Patria Investments Limited do?Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private...

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourced business services, and digital & tech services. It prefers to invest globally with focus on Latin America, Europe, United States, North America and Brazil. It seeks to invest between $38.48 million and $72.14 million per transaction. The firm seeks a majority or minority stake in its portfolio companies. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. The firm seeks to co-invest with other investors. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands with additional offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Patria Investments Limited operates as a subsidiary of Patria Holdings Limited.

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