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PAXPatria Investments LimitedHold6.7·$11.52-0.95%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Patria Investments offers a rare combination of 22% revenue growth, a wide economic moat, strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a PEG of 0.04 — though two consecutive earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend temper near-term entry conviction.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Compounder QualityStable
  • Extreme Peg ValuationStable
  • Industry Growth LeadershipStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with... Read more

$11.52+17.8% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#13 of 235 Asset Management
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield5.85%(5y avg 5.47%)Payout134.68%at-risk
Stop $10.72Target $13.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$15.57+35.2%7 analysts
$13.55our TP
$11.52price
$15.57mean
$20

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 11, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.7
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE12.9%
Rev Growth34.9%
Beta0.75
Dividend5.85%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C6.00bearish
IV179%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
3.4
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.40Resistance $11.64

Price Targets

$11
$14
A.Upside+17.8%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-11 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.52, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $13.55 (+17.6%), stop $10.72 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.55 (+17.8% upside). Target $13.55 (+17.6%), stop $10.72 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $10.72.

What are the risks of investing in PAX?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is PAX overvalued or undervalued?

Patria Investments Limited trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PAX?

11 analysts cover PAX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $16.

What does Patria Investments Limited do?Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private...

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seeks to be sector agnostic with focus on agribusiness, power & energy, healthcare, logistics & transportations, food & beverage, agricultural products, packaged foods and meats, education services, outsourced business services, and digital & tech services. It prefers to invest globally with focus on Latin America, Europe, United States, North America and Brazil. It seeks to invest between $38.48 million and $72.14 million per transaction. The firm seeks a majority or minority stake in its portfolio companies. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. The firm seeks to co-invest with other investors. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands with additional offices across South America, North America, Europe and Asia. Patria Investments Limited operates as a subsidiary of Patria Holdings Limited.

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