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PAAPlains All American Pipeline, LSell5.6·$22.32+0.34%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Plains All American Pipeline trades at an attractive PEG of 0.14 and shows a deeply oversold technical setup with RSI at 28 and near-Bollinger lower band, but below-average business quality, two consecutive earnings misses, and no competitive moat limit the investment case for new buyers.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Low PegStable
  • Oversold Technical Bounce SetupStable
  • Consecutive Earnings Miss PatternStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Plains All American Pipeline, L (PAA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.32: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the pipeline transportation, terminalling, storage, and gathering of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Crude Oil and NGL.... Read more

$22.32+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#22 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.97%
IncomeYield7.09%(5y avg 7.23%)Payout140.32%at-risk
Stop $21.55Target $22.62(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$23.61+5.8%18 analysts
$22.62our TP
$22.32price
$23.61mean
$20
$27

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.32: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Plains All American Pipeline, L

Generated 2026-07-06T06:10:55Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 7, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-5.6% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.3
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$15.9B
EV/EBITDA13.8
Profit Mgn2.5%
ROE10.4%
Rev Growth8.7%
Beta0.47
Dividend7.09%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV49%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Russ Montgomery promoted to VP Accounting and Chief Accounting Officer effective Sept 1, 2026. Chris Herbold, SVP Finance and Chief Accounting Officer, retiring Aug 31, 2026. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-13Item 5.02LOW
    Cynthia B. Taylor appointed independent board member (Class III) effective May 11, 2026. Also added to Compensation Committee and Health, Safety, Environmental and Sustainability Committee. No departures.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-12Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Term loan terminated concurrent with May 12, 2026 sale of Canadian NGL Business to Keyera Corp. Net proceeds ~$3.3B used to repay commercial paper, term loan, and PAA's 4.50% senior notes due December 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-12Item 2.01MEDIUM
    PAA completed sale of Plains Midstream Canada ULC (Canadian NGL Business) to Keyera Corp for ~CAD $5.13B (~USD $3.76B) on May 12, 2026. Net proceeds ~$3.3B to be applied to leverage reduction.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
6.4

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
1.1
Net Margin
1.3
Roa
2.0
Roe
3.5
Current Ratio
3.8
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
6.8
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.96Resistance $23.08

Price Targets

$22
$23
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.6% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PAA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.32: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.55. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PAA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.62 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $21.55. Stop-loss: $21.55.

What are the risks of investing in PAA?

Target reached (-5.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is PAA overvalued or undervalued?

Plains All American Pipeline, L trades at a P/E of 20.3 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PAA?

24 analysts cover PAA with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Plains All American Pipeline, L do?Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the pipeline transportation, terminalling,...

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the pipeline transportation, terminalling, storage, and gathering of crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Crude Oil and NGL. The Crude Oil segment offers gathering and transporting crude oil through pipelines, trucks, and on barges or railcars. This segment provides terminalling, storage, and other related services, as well as merchant activities. The NGL segment is involved in natural gas processing and NGL fractionation, storage, transportation, and terminaling. This segment also includes ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, and natural gasoline derived from natural gas production and processing activities, as well as crude oil refining processes. Its NGL components are used for various applications, such as heating, engine, and industrial fuels. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. operates as a subsidiary of Plains GP Holdings, L.P.

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