Oscar Health is posting impressive 53% revenue growth and is the industry growth leader in healthcare plans, but 93% revenue concentration in government premium payments creates existential policy risk, and business quality at 2.9 remains well below the 4.0 investability floor.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Floor Breach→Stable
- Revenue Growth 53pct Leadership→Stable
- Government Payer Concentration 93pct→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Oscar Health offers ACA-compliant individual health plans in 18 states (20 for 2026), serving approximately 2.0 million effectuated members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes almost entirely from health insurance premiums, 93% collected from CMS via advanced premium tax... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and healthcare gov payer hard block. Suitability: aggressive.
About Oscar Health, Inc.
About Oscar Health, Inc.
Oscar Health served approximately 2.0 million effectuated members across 18 states in the individual ACA market as of December 31, 2025 — up from roughly 1.68 million at year-end 2024 — with Florida accounting for 1,179,934 members and Texas for 358,910. The company's +Oscar Campaign Builder platform served nearly 0.6 million additional client lives for provider and payor partners. Approximately 2,305 employees supported operations as of December 31, 2025.
Oscar earns revenue primarily from ACA health insurance premiums, 93% of which were collected directly from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services via the APTC program and 7% from member payments in 2025. Members enroll principally through brokers using EDE platforms — the 10-K notes the vast majority of membership is acquired through the broker channel. In 2025, the company acquired three early-stage businesses (Lucie, Inc. / INSXCloud, IHC Specialty Benefits, and Healthinsurance.org) to build ICHRA and direct enrollment capabilities. The medical loss ratio and CMS risk adjustment transfers are the primary financial levers: base premiums are subject to risk adjustment based on the relative health status of members in a given state market, creating potential revenue volatility regardless of enrollment growth. Principal competitors include national carriers, regional carriers, Medicaid-focused insurers offering ACA marketplace products, and local Blue Cross plans.
Show full overview
Oscar's premium revenue concentrates in a single federal payer relationship: 93% of 2025 premiums flowed from CMS under the APTC program, meaning subsidy policy changes — including the expiration of enhanced Advanced Premium Tax Credits or new program integrity rules — could materially affect effective premium per member. Florida represented 1,179,934 of 2,042,449 total members at year-end 2025, over half the membership base; premium rate changes require state and federal regulatory approval under the ACA, exposing the company to multi-jurisdictional timing risk across its geographically concentrated footprint.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Oscar Health, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Oscar Health, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS 9 Financials Stocks With Whale Alerts In Today's Session — benzinga Jun 12, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Barclays Upgrades Oscar Health to Overweight, Raises Price Target to $35 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oscar Health Stock In Focus: 52-Week High, Goldman Sachs Conference, Q1 Earnings — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Oscar Health Stock Is Trending After Jumping 12% On Monday: What's Going On? — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS Rumble, Agilon Health And Oscar Health Among Stocks Moving Higher On Thursday — benzinga Jun 4, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerCMS premiums93%10-K Item 1: '93% of premiums were earned directly from CMS and 7% were from our members'
- HIGHGeographicFlorida10-K Item 1: 'Florida| 1,179,934 ... Total| 2,042,449'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUMMario Schlosser transitioned from President of Technology and CTO to Co-Founder & Advisor to the CEO effective June 1, 2026 per amended employment agreement of May 29, 2026. Base salary reduced to $370,000; no longer eligible for annual bonus or LTI awards. Remains on board of directors.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $32.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $29.93. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.44 (+0.8% upside). Prior stop was $29.93. Stop-loss: $29.93.
Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 93% of revenue from CMS premiums (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: CMS premiums (93.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Florida.
Oscar Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover OSCR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $23.
What does Oscar Health, Inc. do?Oscar Health offers ACA-compliant individual health plans in 18 states (20 for 2026), serving approximately 2.0 million...
Oscar Health offers ACA-compliant individual health plans in 18 states (20 for 2026), serving approximately 2.0 million effectuated members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes almost entirely from health insurance premiums, 93% collected from CMS via advanced premium tax credits and 7% directly from members. The +Oscar Campaign Builder platform additionally serves nearly 0.6 million client lives for provider and payor partners.