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OPCHOption Care Health, Inc.Sell5.1·$23.70+0.89%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Option Care Health offers attractive valuation and consistent earnings execution, but heavy customer and supplier concentration alongside declining earnings estimates and a confirmed downtrend keep the risk profile elevated.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation EntryStable
  • Customer Concentration RiskImproving
  • Earnings Estimates DecliningImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellValueModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. At $23.70, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: MCOs and non-governmental payers (88.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four vendors.

Option Care Health operates 196 home and alternate-site infusion pharmacies in 43 states—87 full-service pharmacies plus 109 stand-alone ambulatory infusion suites—delivering anti-infective, immunoglobulin, and biologic therapies under physician direction. Revenue comes from... Read more

$23.70+4.9% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#30 of 35 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.21%
Stop $22.40Target $24.87(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$28.58+20.6%12 analysts
$24.87our TP
$23.70price
$28.58mean
$39

Sell if holding. At $23.70, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: MCOs and non-governmental payers (88.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four vendors. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-24
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202666d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: MCOs and non-governmental payers (88.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: four vendors
Thin upside margin: 4.9%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn3.7%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth1.9%
Beta0.61
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV56%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMCOs and non-governmental payers88%
    10-K Item 1A: '88% of our revenue came from MCOs and other non-governmental payers'
  • LOWCustomerlargest payer14%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's largest payer represented approximately 14% of its revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • LOWregulatoryMedicare and Medicaid12%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 12% of the Company's revenue was reimbursable through direct government healthcare programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid.'
  • HIGHSupplierfour vendors
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 68% of our pharmaceutical and medical supply purchases were from four vendors'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Chief Growth Officer Christopher L. Grashoff to depart effective May 8, 2026. Entitled to separation benefits under the Amended and Restated Executive Severance Plan conditioned on release of claims. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.9
Support Resistance
3.8
Bollinger
4.2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Earnings Growth
4.6
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.66Resistance $24.96

Price Targets

$22
$25
A.Upside+4.9%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OPCH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $23.70, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: MCOs and non-governmental payers (88.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four vendors. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $22.40. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OPCH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $24.87 (+4.9% upside). Prior stop was $22.40. Stop-loss: $22.40.

What are the risks of investing in OPCH?

Concentration risk — Customer: MCOs and non-governmental payers (88.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four vendors; Thin upside margin: 4.9%.

Is OPCH overvalued or undervalued?

Option Care Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OPCH?

19 analysts cover OPCH with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Option Care Health, Inc. do?Option Care Health operates 196 home and alternate-site infusion pharmacies in 43 states—87 full-service pharmacies...

Option Care Health operates 196 home and alternate-site infusion pharmacies in 43 states—87 full-service pharmacies plus 109 stand-alone ambulatory infusion suites—delivering anti-infective, immunoglobulin, and biologic therapies under physician direction. Revenue comes from reimbursements by MCOs, Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial payers for pharmaceuticals dispensed and nursing services, with 6,528 full-time and 1,738 part-time employees at year-end 2025.

Related stocks: SRTA (Strata Critical Medical, Inc.) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · STLN (Starling Oncology, Inc.) · GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc.)
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