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Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 pharmaceutical vendors (68.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).

Option Care Health is the largest independent provider of home and alternate site infusion services, operating 196 locations in 43 states with a multidisciplinary team of over 5,000 clinicians. Revenue is generated through reimbursement from managed care organizations (88% of... Read more

$19.79+28.9% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#22 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.46%
Stop $18.31Target $25.39(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$29.18+47.5%11 analysts
$25.39our TP
$19.79price
$29.18mean
$39

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 pharmaceutical vendors (68.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Option Care Health, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 29%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 pharmaceutical vendors (68.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA10.4
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE15.3%
Rev Growth1.3%
Beta0.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV50%elevated
Max Pain$15-24.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliertop-4 pharmaceutical vendors68%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 68% of the Company’s pharmaceutical and medical supply purchases were from four vendors.'
  • LOWCustomerlargest payer14%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company’s largest payer represented approximately 14% of its revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Christopher Grashoff (Chief Growth Officer) departing effective May 8, 2026. Entitled to separation benefits per Executive Severance Plan. No successor named for the role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
2.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
4.4
Value Rank
7.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.7
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.6
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
17 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $18.01Resistance $28.93

Price Targets

$18
$25
A.Upside+28.3%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OPCH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 pharmaceutical vendors (68.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 17, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $18.31. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OPCH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.39 (+28.9% upside). Prior stop was $18.31. Stop-loss: $18.31.

What are the risks of investing in OPCH?

Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 pharmaceutical vendors (68.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is OPCH overvalued or undervalued?

Option Care Health, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OPCH?

18 analysts cover OPCH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Option Care Health, Inc. do?Option Care Health is the largest independent provider of home and alternate site infusion services, operating 196...

Option Care Health is the largest independent provider of home and alternate site infusion services, operating 196 locations in 43 states with a multidisciplinary team of over 5,000 clinicians. Revenue is generated through reimbursement from managed care organizations (88% of revenue) and direct government programs (12%), with the largest payer representing approximately 14% of 2025 revenue.

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