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ONCBeOne Medicines Ltd.Buy Wait6.3·$358.26-1.22%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BeOne Medicines combines 36% revenue growth, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score of 51 with strong analyst conviction (54% upside consensus), but the stock is in a confirmed falling knife pattern with RSI at 22, a death cross in place, and BRUKINSA product concentration risk from a single revenue driver.

Thesis pillars

  • Brukinsa Concentration Growth EngineDeteriorating
  • Wide Moat Compounder QualityStable
  • Falling Knife Technical SetupDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

BeOne Medicines Ltd. (ONC) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Wait for pullback to $314.02. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $358.26. Engine's entry $314.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: BRUKINSA; Thin upside margin: 8.6%.

BeOne Medicines discovers and commercializes oncology medicines globally, led by BRUKINSA (zanubrutinib), a BTK inhibitor approved in 77 markets, and TEVIMBRA (tislelizumab), an anti-PD-1 antibody approved in 51 markets. The company generated approximately $5.3 billion in total... Read more

$358.26+8.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#26 of 259 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.17%
Entry $314.02(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $296.54Target $388.94(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$432.16+20.6%28 analysts
$388.94our TP
$358.26price
$432.16mean
$528

Wait for pullback to $314.02. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $358.26. Engine's entry $314.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: BRUKINSA; Thin upside margin: 8.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.7/10, growth 9.9/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: BRUKINSA
Thin upside margin: 8.6%
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)64.9
P/E (Fwd)34.8
Mkt Cap$40.5B
EV/EBITDA35.2
Profit Mgn10.7%
ROE14.7%
Rev Growth29.6%
Beta0.52
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$450+25.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductBRUKINSA
    10-K Item 1: 'total global revenue of approximately $5.3 billion ... BRUKINSA generated $3.9 billion in sales in 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5INSIDER 0.53%=MODERATEA.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $343.50Resistance $380.00

Price Targets

$297
$314
$389
A.Upside+8.6%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.7%
Max %3.4%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $314.02. Weak momentum; also insider activity concern — blocks BUY_NOW at $358.26. Engine's entry $314.02 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: BRUKINSA; Thin upside margin: 8.6%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.00, quality 7.7/10, growth 9.9/10). Target $388.94 (+8.6%), stop $296.54 (−20.8%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $388.94 (+8.6% upside). Target $388.94 (+8.6%), stop $296.54 (−20.8%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $296.54.

What are the risks of investing in ONC?

Concentration risk — Product: BRUKINSA; Thin upside margin: 8.6%; Negative momentum.

Is ONC overvalued or undervalued?

BeOne Medicines Ltd. trades at a P/E of 64.9 (forward 34.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ONC?

12 analysts cover ONC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $432.

What does BeOne Medicines Ltd. do?BeOne Medicines discovers and commercializes oncology medicines globally, led by BRUKINSA (zanubrutinib), a BTK...

BeOne Medicines discovers and commercializes oncology medicines globally, led by BRUKINSA (zanubrutinib), a BTK inhibitor approved in 77 markets, and TEVIMBRA (tislelizumab), an anti-PD-1 antibody approved in 51 markets. The company generated approximately $5.3 billion in total revenue in 2025, with BRUKINSA contributing $3.9 billion in sales, and employs nearly 12,000 people across research, clinical, and commercial operations.

Related stocks: ASND (Ascendis Pharma A/S) · INCY (Incyte Corporation) · ARGX (argenx SE) · LEGN (Legend Biotech Corporation) · ALNY (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
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