Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a business development company trading at an attractively low forward P/E of 8.4x with strong free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed death-cross technical setup, declining revenue, and heavy concentration in first-lien debt create a risk profile that warrants caution at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- First Lien Concentration Risk→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Low Pe→Stable
- Strong Fcf Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Sell if holding. At $10.83, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%).
Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC that originates loans and makes debt and equity investments primarily in U.S. upper middle-market companies with EBITDA of $25 million to $500 million. The company held $17.19 billion in total assets across 234 portfolio... Read more
Sell if holding. At $10.83, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Blue Owl Capital Corporation
About Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Blue Owl Capital Corporation held $17.19 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, funded by $9.39 billion in outstanding indebtedness and $7.40 billion in net assets, with a weighted average interest rate on borrowings of 5.63%. The BDC portfolio comprised 234 companies across 30 industries, with 73.1% in first lien debt and 96.4% of debt investments at floating rates. The external adviser, Blue Owl Credit Advisors LLC, managed $157.76 billion in total AUM including $115.01 billion in direct lending strategies across four investment approaches.
The company earns interest and fee income on loans to upper middle-market borrowers with weighted average annual revenue of $1.01 billion and EBITDA of $236.7 million per portfolio company at year-end 2025. The largest single industry in the portfolio was internet software and services at 11.1% of fair value, with no other industry disclosed at a higher concentration. Blue Owl Capital Corporation borrows at a 150% asset coverage ratio approved by shareholders in June 2020, enabling it to deploy up to $2 for every $1 of investor equity; at year-end the ratio of total assets to net assets implied a leverage factor of approximately 2.3x. On January 13, 2025, the company completed the acquisition of Blue Owl Capital Corporation III (OBDE), issuing roughly 120.6 million shares to former OBDE stockholders, which expanded the portfolio and deepened the diversified lending platform. The investment team includes more than 130 professionals organized around four direct lending investment committees.
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The Federal Reserve decreased the federal funds rate three times in 2025, and future cuts remain uncertain. Because 96.4% of Blue Owl Capital Corporation's debt investments are floating-rate, sustained rate declines would compress interest income while fixed borrowing costs remain in place, squeezing net interest margin. The 10-K also notes that lower rates increase prepayment risk on higher-rate portfolio investments and that unfavorable economic conditions may require modifying portfolio companies' payment terms — including shifts to payment-in-kind interest — which could reduce distributable cash even if book income remains stable.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From Blue Owl Capital Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) to Release Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital Corporation $OBDC is Brown University's Largest Position - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS OBDC stock slumps as Q1 base rates, spreads weigh on earnings, new commitments nearly halve - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha negative
- NEWS BLUE OWL CAPITAL ($OBDC) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductfirst lien debt investments73%10-K Item 1: 'based on fair value, our portfolio consisted of 73.1% first lien debt investments'
- LOWloan_portfoliointernet software and services11%10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was internet software and services, which represented, 11.1% of our total portfolio, based on fair value.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $10.83, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $10.36. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $11.58 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $10.36. Stop-loss: $10.36.
Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 7.0%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.5 (forward 8.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover OBDC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $13.
What does Blue Owl Capital Corporation do?Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC that originates loans and makes debt and equity investments...
Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC that originates loans and makes debt and equity investments primarily in U.S. upper middle-market companies with EBITDA of $25 million to $500 million. The company held $17.19 billion in total assets across 234 portfolio companies at December 31, 2025, with 96.4% of debt investments at floating rates.