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Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.66 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a BDC externally managed by Blue Owl Credit Advisors LLC, focused on direct lending to U.S. upper middle-market companies with EBITDA over $50M. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio comprised $16.6B across 234 companies (avg $70.4M) in 30... Read more

$11.66+2.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#54 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $11.08Target $12.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$13.79+18.3%12 analysts
$12.00our TP
$11.66price
$13.79mean
$15

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.66 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth13.5%
Beta0.70
Dividend13.40%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV78%elevated
Max Pain$3-78.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.4
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
6.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.5
Bollinger
2.1
52w Position
6.9
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.52Resistance $11.88

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBDC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.66 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $11.08. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OBDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.00 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $11.08. Stop-loss: $11.08.

What are the risks of investing in OBDC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

Is OBDC overvalued or undervalued?

Blue Owl Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OBDC?

19 analysts cover OBDC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does Blue Owl Capital Corporation do?Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a BDC externally managed by Blue Owl Credit Advisors LLC, focused on direct lending to...

Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a BDC externally managed by Blue Owl Credit Advisors LLC, focused on direct lending to U.S. upper middle-market companies with EBITDA over $50M. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio comprised $16.6B across 234 companies (avg $70.4M) in 30 industries; 73.1% first lien debt, 96.4% floating rate.

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