Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a business development company trading at an attractively low forward P/E of 8.4x with strong free cash flow conversion, but a confirmed death-cross technical setup, declining revenue, and heavy concentration in first-lien debt create a risk profile that warrants caution at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- First Lien Concentration Risk→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Low Pe→Stable
- Strong Fcf Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Asset Management
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 8.5%.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC that originates loans and makes debt and equity investments primarily in U.S. upper middle-market companies with EBITDA of $25 million to $500 million. The company held $17.19 billion in total assets across 234 portfolio... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Blue Owl Capital Corporation
About Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Blue Owl Capital Corporation held $17.19 billion in total assets at December 31, 2025, funded by $9.39 billion in outstanding indebtedness and $7.40 billion in net assets, with a weighted average interest rate on borrowings of 5.63%. The BDC portfolio comprised 234 companies across 30 industries, with 73.1% in first lien debt and 96.4% of debt investments at floating rates. The external adviser, Blue Owl Credit Advisors LLC, managed $157.76 billion in total AUM including $115.01 billion in direct lending strategies across four investment approaches.
The company earns interest and fee income on loans to upper middle-market borrowers with weighted average annual revenue of $1.01 billion and EBITDA of $236.7 million per portfolio company at year-end 2025. The largest single industry in the portfolio was internet software and services at 11.1% of fair value, with no other industry disclosed at a higher concentration. Blue Owl Capital Corporation borrows at a 150% asset coverage ratio approved by shareholders in June 2020, enabling it to deploy up to $2 for every $1 of investor equity; at year-end the ratio of total assets to net assets implied a leverage factor of approximately 2.3x. On January 13, 2025, the company completed the acquisition of Blue Owl Capital Corporation III (OBDE), issuing roughly 120.6 million shares to former OBDE stockholders, which expanded the portfolio and deepened the diversified lending platform. The investment team includes more than 130 professionals organized around four direct lending investment committees.
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The Federal Reserve decreased the federal funds rate three times in 2025, and future cuts remain uncertain. Because 96.4% of Blue Owl Capital Corporation's debt investments are floating-rate, sustained rate declines would compress interest income while fixed borrowing costs remain in place, squeezing net interest margin. The 10-K also notes that lower rates increase prepayment risk on higher-rate portfolio investments and that unfavorable economic conditions may require modifying portfolio companies' payment terms — including shifts to payment-in-kind interest — which could reduce distributable cash even if book income remains stable.
See also: Financial Services · Asset Management
From Blue Owl Capital Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Blue Owl Capital Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital Corporation Shares Decline Amid Broader Financial Sector Sell-Off — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Arthur Hayes Tells Jerome Powell To ‘Warm Up’ Printer After Blue Owl Freezes Redemptions - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Nov 1, 2026 negative
- NEWS OBDC Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 383.82M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Is Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Undervalued Right Now? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) - What Are Brokerages Thinking About This Stock? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductfirst lien debt investments73%10-K Item 1: 'based on fair value, our portfolio consisted of 73.1% first lien debt investments'
- LOWloan_portfoliointernet software and services11%10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was internet software and services, which represented, 11.1% of our total portfolio, based on fair value.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 8.5%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $11.39 (+8.5%), stop $10.04 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $11.39 (+8.5% upside). Analyst target $11.39 (+8.5%), stop $10.04 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $10.04.
Concentration risk — Product: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.
Blue Owl Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
19 analysts rate OBDC, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $13.
What does Blue Owl Capital Corporation do?Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC that originates loans and makes debt and equity investments...
Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC that originates loans and makes debt and equity investments primarily in U.S. upper middle-market companies with EBITDA of $25 million to $500 million. The company held $17.19 billion in total assets across 234 portfolio companies at December 31, 2025, with 96.4% of debt investments at floating rates.