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Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $11.05, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%).

Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC focused on direct lending to U.S. upper-middle-market companies with EBITDA above $50 million, primarily through first lien senior secured loans. As of December 31, 2025, it held investments in 234 portfolio companies... Read more

$11.05+6.2% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#14 of 112 Asset Management
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield11.35%
IncomeYield12.47%(5y avg 8.97%)Payout215.71%at-risk
Stop $10.58Target $11.73(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$13.48+22.0%12 analysts
$11.73our TP
$11.05price
$13.48mean
$15

Sell if holding. At $11.05, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Val8.3Qual6.9Grw8.0Mom2.4Sent6.3Ins5.0Peer4.7Tech7.6Risk6.86.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Blue Owl Capital Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%)
Thin upside margin: 6.1%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth13.5%
Beta0.69
Dividend12.47%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWloan_portfoliointernet software and services11%
    10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was internet software and services, which represented, 11.1% of our total portfolio, based on fair value.'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliofirst lien debt investments73%
    10-K Item 1: 'our portfolio consisted of 73.1% first lien debt investments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.5
Volume
3.1
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.91Resistance $11.98

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+6.2%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBDC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $11.05, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $10.58. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OBDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.73 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $10.58. Stop-loss: $10.58.

What are the risks of investing in OBDC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is OBDC overvalued or undervalued?

Blue Owl Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OBDC?

19 analysts cover OBDC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Blue Owl Capital Corporation do?Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC focused on direct lending to U.S. upper-middle-market...

Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC focused on direct lending to U.S. upper-middle-market companies with EBITDA above $50 million, primarily through first lien senior secured loans. As of December 31, 2025, it held investments in 234 portfolio companies with $17.19 billion in total assets and $7.40 billion in net assets.

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