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NVGSNavigator Holdings Ltd.Sell5.4·$19.12+2.69%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Navigator Holdings trades at an attractive forward P/E of 13.1x and carries a Piotroski score of 7/9, but revenue declined 7% year-over-year, the company missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and news sentiment has turned negative, limiting near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Value Metrics At DiscountStable
  • Strong Piotroski Financial HealthStable
  • Earnings Miss Revenue DeclineStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international and regional seaborne transportation of petrochemical gases, liquefied petroleum gases, and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users, and commodity... Read more

$19.12+14.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#24 of 46 Oil & Gas Midstream
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield10.48%
IncomeYield1.46%Payout14.81%sustainable
Stop $17.78Target $21.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$25.25+32.1%6 analysts
$21.97our TP
$19.12price
$25.25mean
$27

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.8
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn18.8%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth-7.1%
Beta
Dividend1.46%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV73%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
6.4

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Volume
6.2
Rsi
8.4
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 146.0%
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.30Resistance $23.16

Price Targets

$18
$22
A.Upside+14.9%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $19.12 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $17.78. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.97 (+14.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.78. Stop-loss: $17.78.

What are the risks of investing in NVGS?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Negative momentum.

Is NVGS overvalued or undervalued?

Navigator Holdings Ltd. trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVGS?

14 analysts cover NVGS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Navigator Holdings Ltd. do?Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international...

Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. It engages in the international and regional seaborne transportation of petrochemical gases, liquefied petroleum gases, and ammonia for energy companies, industrial users, and commodity traders. The company also provides ship shore infrastructure and consultancy services. It operates through a fleet of 57 semi- or fully-refrigerated liquefied gas carriers. Navigator Holdings Ltd. was formerly known as Isle of Man public limited company and changed its name to Navigator Holdings Ltd. in 2006. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

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