Nutanix has strong free cash flow conversion at 229% of net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, but is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross hard block triggered, momentum at a very low 1.7, and a Supermicro supplier concentration risk, making the near-term risk profile unfavorable despite good fundamental scores.
Thesis pillars
- Supermicro Supplier Concentration→Stable
- Strong Fcf Conversion Piotroski→Stable
- Death Cross Severe Momentum Failure→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $51.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across private data centers, edge environments, and public clouds on a subscription basis. The company serves over 29,000 end customers; top two distributors represented... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $51.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Nutanix, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nutanix (NTNX) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Nutanix (NTNX) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX) Exceeds Q1 CY2026 Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NTNX) Nutanix, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.47 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.36 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NTNX) Nutanix, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.47 per Share, Vs. FactSet Est of $0.36 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two distributors41%10-K Item 1: 'Our top two distributors to our end customers represented 48%, 47% and 41% of our total revenue for fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.'
- HIGHSupplierSupermicro10-K Item 1: 'The Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms are manufactured by Super Micro Computer, Inc. ("Supermicro").'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $51.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $51.31 (+0.1%), stop $47.69 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $51.31 (+0.1% upside). Target $51.31 (+0.1%), stop $47.69 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $47.69.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Nutanix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 54.0 (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
25 analysts cover NTNX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $57.
What does Nutanix, Inc. do?Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across...
Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across private data centers, edge environments, and public clouds on a subscription basis. The company serves over 29,000 end customers; top two distributors represented 41% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Software runs on OEM hardware from Cisco, Dell, HPE, Fujitsu, and Lenovo.