Nutanix has strong free cash flow conversion at 229% of net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, but is in a confirmed downtrend with a death cross hard block triggered, momentum at a very low 1.7, and a Supermicro supplier concentration risk, making the near-term risk profile unfavorable despite good fundamental scores.
Thesis pillars
- Supermicro Supplier Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Strong Fcf Conversion Piotroski→Stable
- Death Cross Severe Momentum Failure→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. At $68.03, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing).
Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across private data centers, edge environments, and public clouds on a subscription basis. The company serves over 29,000 end customers; top two distributors represented... Read more
Sell if holding. At $68.03, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — Nutanix, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nutanix (NTNX) Q3 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Nutanix (NTNX) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX) Exceeds Q1 CY2026 Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NTNX) Nutanix, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.47 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.36 - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Earnings Flash (NTNX) Nutanix, Inc. Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $0.47 per Share, Vs. FactSet Est of $0.36 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-09-26T04:42:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop two distributors41%10-K Item 1: 'Our top two distributors to our end customers represented 48%, 47% and 41% of our total revenue for fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.'
- HIGHSupplierSupermicro10-K Item 1: 'The Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms are manufactured by Super Micro Computer, Inc. ("Supermicro").'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $68.03, A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $64.35. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $70.39 (-2.3% upside). Prior stop was $64.35. Stop-loss: $64.35.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Supermicro; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 1.9x (earnings normalizing); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Nutanix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 25.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover NTNX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $76.
What does Nutanix, Inc. do?Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across...
Nutanix delivers a unified cloud software platform enabling organizations to run applications and manage data across private data centers, edge environments, and public clouds on a subscription basis. The company serves over 29,000 end customers; top two distributors represented 41% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Software runs on OEM hardware from Cisco, Dell, HPE, Fujitsu, and Lenovo.