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Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.00 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro).

Nutanix is a hybrid multicloud software company offering a subscription-based cloud platform that unifies compute, storage, networking, and AI workloads across private and public clouds. The company had over 29,000 end customers as of July 31, 2025, with channel partners and... Read more

$48.00+1.9% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#29 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.20%
Stop $44.89Target $49.21(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$54.68+13.9%15 analysts
$49.21our TP
$48.00price
$54.68mean
$40
$65

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.00 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Nutanix, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.6
P/E (Fwd)22.1
Mkt Cap$12.8B
EV/EBITDA41.6
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta0.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-2 distributors41%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top two distributors to our end customers represented 48%, 47% and 41% of our total revenue for fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierSuper Micro Computer (Supermicro)
    10-K Item 1: 'The Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms are manufactured by Super Micro Computer, Inc. ("Supermicro"). Supermicro designs, assembles and tests the Nutanix-branded NX series hardware platforms'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
0.9
52w Position
1.6
Gap
5.0
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $38.18Resistance $49.32

Price Targets

$45
$49
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.9% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-27 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NTNX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $48.00 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $44.89. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NTNX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.21 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $44.89. Stop-loss: $44.89.

What are the risks of investing in NTNX?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Super Micro Computer (Supermicro); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is NTNX overvalued or undervalued?

Nutanix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 51.6 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NTNX?

26 analysts cover NTNX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $55.

What does Nutanix, Inc. do?Nutanix is a hybrid multicloud software company offering a subscription-based cloud platform that unifies compute,...

Nutanix is a hybrid multicloud software company offering a subscription-based cloud platform that unifies compute, storage, networking, and AI workloads across private and public clouds. The company had over 29,000 end customers as of July 31, 2025, with channel partners and OEMs accounting for the majority of transactions. Top two distributors represented 41% of total revenue in fiscal 2025.

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