Nelnet trades at an attractive forward P/E of 12.8x with strong margins and rising momentum, but two recent quarterly earnings misses and a price already above analyst consensus with a recent officer departure create a cautious near-term outlook.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Low Valuation→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Consensus→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $135.26 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.
Nelnet is a Nebraska holding company operating in student loan servicing, education technology and payments, and banking. It services $486.2 billion of loans for 13.2 million borrowers and earns revenue from U.S. Department of Education contracts (21% of 2025 revenue), tuition... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $135.26 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Nelnet, Inc.
About Nelnet, Inc.
Nelnet's Loan Servicing and Systems segment serviced $486.2 billion of student loans for 13.2 million borrowers at December 31, 2025, with the Department of Education representing 21% of total company revenue in 2025. FACTS, the company's K-12 education technology platform, generated $312 million in 2025 revenue across nearly 12,000 schools, while Nelnet Campus Commerce generated $148 million serving over 1,200 colleges. Nelnet Bank launched in 2020 and held $957.6 million in loans and $1.08 billion in investments at year-end 2025.
Nelnet generates revenue across four primary channels: LSS earns monthly per-borrower fees from the Department of Education under the USDS contract (live April 1, 2024, base period through April 2028) and from 61 third-party FFELP servicing clients; ETSP earns subscription, per-application, and payment processing fees via FACTS and Nelnet Campus Commerce; Asset Generation and Management earns net interest on an $8.7 billion loan portfolio (85.5% federally insured as of December 31, 2025), primarily funded through asset-backed securitizations; and Nelnet Bank earns net interest on $957.6 million in private education and consumer loans funded primarily by brokered certificates of deposit. The company's $7.6 billion FFELP portfolio—legacy of its origin as a 1978 Nebraska FFELP servicer—generates declining interest income as no new originations have occurred since the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act ended the program in July 2010. During 2025, Nelnet purchased $629.7 million in consumer and non-FFELP loans and initiated a Pay Later receivable program (balance $744.2 million at December 31, 2025) to partially offset FFELP run-off.
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The USDS contract concentrates delivery risk: the Department of Education allocates new loan volume among servicers based on performance metrics benchmarked against all other servicers, and per-borrower blended revenue has already decreased relative to the legacy contract. The One Big Beautiful Bill enacted July 4, 2025 placed caps on federal graduate and parent-PLUS lending—reducing future federal loan volume—while potentially expanding the private student lending market supportive of Nelnet Bank. On February 2, 2026, Nelnet acquired a Canadian student loan servicing business for CAD $130.5 million, adding 2.7 million borrowers on proprietary platforms as a step toward reducing DoE revenue dependence.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From Nelnet, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Nelnet, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate, Sales $419.061M Miss $443.840M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Nelnet's Nelnet Business Services Acquires Passtab Safety and Compliance Platform; No Terms Disclosed — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerDepartment of Education21%10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest fee-based customer, the Department of Education, represented 21% of our revenue in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 1.01LOWOn March 31, 2026, Nelnet entered a $435M unsecured revolving credit facility with U.S. Bank National Association (admin agent), Wells Fargo, Royal Bank of Canada, and others. Initial balance $0; full capacity available for general corporate purposes. Matures March 31, 2031.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-02Item 2.03LOWCreation of $435M unsecured revolving credit facility entered March 31, 2026 with initial outstanding balance of $0. Interest at variable rates based on market conditions and company credit rating; matures March 31, 2031.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-23Item 5.02LOWAdam Peterson resigned from Nelnet's Board of Directors on March 23, 2026, for business and personal reasons. Not the result of any disagreement with company operations, policies, or practices. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -7.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $135.26 — A.R:R is negative (-2.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $129.84. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $133.39 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $129.84. Stop-loss: $129.84.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Nelnet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.8 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NNI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $135.
What does Nelnet, Inc. do?Nelnet is a Nebraska holding company operating in student loan servicing, education technology and payments, and...
Nelnet is a Nebraska holding company operating in student loan servicing, education technology and payments, and banking. It services $486.2 billion of loans for 13.2 million borrowers and earns revenue from U.S. Department of Education contracts (21% of 2025 revenue), tuition payment technology for K-12 schools and universities via FACTS and Nelnet Campus Commerce, and net interest from its $8.7 billion AGM loan portfolio.