Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.95 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.
Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2 million borrowers including $434.5B for the Department of Education), education technology/payments (FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce), and asset management (AGM... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.95 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Nelnet, Inc.
About Nelnet, Inc.
Nelnet's Loan Servicing and Systems segment serviced $486.2 billion of student loans for 13.2 million borrowers at December 31, 2025, with the Department of Education representing 21% of total company revenue in 2025. FACTS, the company's K-12 education technology platform, generated $312 million in 2025 revenue across nearly 12,000 schools, while Nelnet Campus Commerce generated $148 million serving over 1,200 colleges. Nelnet Bank launched in 2020 and held $957.6 million in loans and $1.08 billion in investments at year-end 2025.
Nelnet generates revenue across four primary channels: LSS earns monthly per-borrower fees from the Department of Education under the USDS contract (live April 1, 2024, base period through April 2028) and from 61 third-party FFELP servicing clients; ETSP earns subscription, per-application, and payment processing fees via FACTS and Nelnet Campus Commerce; Asset Generation and Management earns net interest on an $8.7 billion loan portfolio (85.5% federally insured as of December 31, 2025), primarily funded through asset-backed securitizations; and Nelnet Bank earns net interest on $957.6 million in private education and consumer loans funded primarily by brokered certificates of deposit. The company's $7.6 billion FFELP portfolio—legacy of its origin as a 1978 Nebraska FFELP servicer—generates declining interest income as no new originations have occurred since the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act ended the program in July 2010. During 2025, Nelnet purchased $629.7 million in consumer and non-FFELP loans and initiated a Pay Later receivable program (balance $744.2 million at December 31, 2025) to partially offset FFELP run-off.
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The USDS contract concentrates delivery risk: the Department of Education allocates new loan volume among servicers based on performance metrics benchmarked against all other servicers, and per-borrower blended revenue has already decreased relative to the legacy contract. The One Big Beautiful Bill enacted July 4, 2025 placed caps on federal graduate and parent-PLUS lending—reducing future federal loan volume—while potentially expanding the private student lending market supportive of Nelnet Bank. On February 2, 2026, Nelnet acquired a Canadian student loan servicing business for CAD $130.5 million, adding 2.7 million borrowers on proprietary platforms as a step toward reducing DoE revenue dependence.
See also: Financial Services · Credit Services
From Nelnet, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Nelnet, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate, Sales $419.061M Miss $443.840M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS Nelnet's Nelnet Business Services Acquires Passtab Safety and Compliance Platform; No Terms Disclosed — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-17T09:36:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerDepartment of Education21%10-K Item 1: 'The Department is the Company's largest customer, representing 21% of the Company's revenue and 68% of the LSS operating segment's revenue in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-23Item 5.02MEDIUMAdam Peterson resigned from Nelnet's Board of Directors effective March 23, 2026 for business and personal reasons. No disagreement with operations, policies, or practices cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -7.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $130.95 — A.R:R is negative (-2.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $125.13. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $129.45 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $125.13. Stop-loss: $125.13.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Nelnet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NNI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $135.
What does Nelnet, Inc. do?Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2...
Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2 million borrowers including $434.5B for the Department of Education), education technology/payments (FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce), and asset management (AGM with $8.7B loan portfolio). The Department of Education is Nelnet's largest customer, representing 21% of revenue in 2025 and 68% of the Loan Servicing segment's revenue. It also operates Nelnet Bank, an internet industrial bank.