Nelnet, Inc. (NNI) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Credit Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $128.36 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.
Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2 million borrowers including $434.5B for the Department of Education), education technology/payments (FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce), and asset management (AGM... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $128.36 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Nelnet, Inc.
Latest news
- Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate, Sales $419.061M Miss $443.840M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- Nelnet Q1 Adj. EPS $1.94 Misses $2.66 Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- Nelnet's Nelnet Business Services Acquires Passtab Safety and Compliance Platform; No Terms Disclosed — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerDepartment of Education21%10-K Item 1: 'The Department is the Company's largest customer, representing 21% of the Company's revenue and 68% of the LSS operating segment's revenue in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-23Item 5.02MEDIUMAdam Peterson resigned from Nelnet's Board of Directors effective March 23, 2026 for business and personal reasons. No disagreement with operations, policies, or practices cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -7.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $128.36 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $119.37. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $141.49 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $119.37. Stop-loss: $119.37.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Nelnet, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover NNI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $135.
What does Nelnet, Inc. do?Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2...
Nelnet is a diversified education-focused holding company with segments in loan servicing (servicing $486.2B for 13.2 million borrowers including $434.5B for the Department of Education), education technology/payments (FACTS, Nelnet Campus Commerce), and asset management (AGM with $8.7B loan portfolio). The Department of Education is Nelnet's largest customer, representing 21% of revenue in 2025 and 68% of the Loan Servicing segment's revenue. It also operates Nelnet Bank, an internet industrial bank.