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NEUNewMarket CorpSell4.9·$786.60+0.13%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NewMarket Corp is a specialty chemicals business with exceptional profitability metrics — 25% return on equity and 15% operating margins — but its international and supplier concentration risks, coupled with declining revenue and near-zero price upside, limit the investment case at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Upside Exhaustion Put Call WarningStable
  • Exceptional Profitability MetricsStable
  • Geographic Supplier ConcentrationStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

NewMarket Corp (NEU) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $786.60: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (61.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source raw material suppliers.

NewMarket Corporation manufactures petroleum additives through Afton Chemical—sold to multinational oil companies worldwide—and specialty materials (ammonium perchlorate, hydrazine) through AMPAC and Calca for U.S. defense and space programs. Afton is one of the four largest... Read more

$786.60+5.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#33 of 40 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.72%
IncomeYield1.49%(5y avg 2.00%)Payout26.26%sustainable
Stop $743.40Target $830.33(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $786.60: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (61.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source raw material suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (61.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source raw material suppliers
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.0
P/E (Fwd)30.5
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn15.3%
ROE25.3%
Rev Growth-4.5%
Beta0.57
Dividend1.49%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV46%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicinternational (outside United States)61%
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales to customers outside of the United States accounted for approximately 61% of consolidated net sales'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source raw material suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'in some cases, we choose to source from a single supplier'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government specialty materials
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to U.S. government contractors and subcontractors, as well as directly to the U.S. government, represent a significant portion of our specialty materials business'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
5.7
Quality Rank
9.1
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $758.30Resistance $847.28

Price Targets

$743
$830
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts8
Consensus2.3/5
Avg Target

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $786.60: Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (61.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source raw material suppliers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $743.40. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $830.33 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $743.40. Stop-loss: $743.40.

What are the risks of investing in NEU?

Concentration risk — Geographic: international (outside United States) (61.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source raw material suppliers; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is NEU overvalued or undervalued?

NewMarket Corp trades at a P/E of 18.0 (forward 30.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NEU?

8 analysts cover NEU with a consensus score of 2.3/5.

What does NewMarket Corp do?NewMarket Corporation manufactures petroleum additives through Afton Chemical—sold to multinational oil companies...

NewMarket Corporation manufactures petroleum additives through Afton Chemical—sold to multinational oil companies worldwide—and specialty materials (ammonium perchlorate, hydrazine) through AMPAC and Calca for U.S. defense and space programs. Afton is one of the four largest petroleum additives suppliers globally; 61% of 2025 consolidated net sales came from outside the United States.

Related stocks: SQM (Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A.) · ECVT (Ecovyst Inc.) · FUL (H. B. Fuller Company) · ALB (Albemarle Corporation) · MTX (Minerals Technologies Inc.)
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