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MZTIThe Marzetti CompanySell5.2·$108.92+0.21%
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The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $108.92: Concentration risk — Customer: top five Retail customers (62.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five Foodservice direct customers (53.0%).

The Marzetti Company manufactures specialty food products across Retail (dressings, croutons, frozen breads, dips) and Foodservice (custom sauces, dressings, frozen breads) segments in the United States. Revenue is concentrated around Chick-fil-A (29% of consolidated net sales... Read more

$108.92+27.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#15 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.26%
IncomeYield3.68%(5y avg 2.02%)Payout61.03%
Stop $102.46Target $138.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.6:1
Analyst target$159.40+46.3%5 analysts
$138.68our TP
$108.92price
$159.40mean
$204

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $108.92: Concentration risk — Customer: top five Retail customers (62.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five Foodservice direct customers (53.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 65d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About The Marzetti Company

About The Marzetti Company

The Marzetti Company's customer base is highly concentrated at the top: Chick-fil-A accounted for 29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, combining an exclusive retail licensing arrangement for Chick-fil-A-branded sauces and dressings with Foodservice supply primarily routed through multiple distributors. Walmart represented an additional 19% of consolidated net sales. Together the two relationships contributed nearly half of consolidated sales in fiscal 2025. The company employed 3,700 people and operated 14 food plants across the United States.

The Marzetti Company generates revenue across two segments. The Retail segment markets shelf-stable dressings and croutons (23% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025), frozen breads (20%), and refrigerated dressings and dips (10%) through food brokers, sales personnel, and distributors in the United States, alongside licensed products sold under Chick-fil-A, Olive Garden, Buffalo Wild Wings, Texas Roadhouse, and Subway brand names. The Foodservice segment sells custom-formulated sauces, salad dressings, frozen breads, and yeast rolls predominantly under private label to national chain restaurant accounts, typically routed through distributors; this segment's top five direct customers represented 53% of Foodservice net sales in fiscal 2025. Principal inputs include soybean oil, flour, sweeteners, dairy products, eggs, and packaging; most are purchased on the open market or under fixed-price contracts generally one year or less in duration, exposing the company to commodity price volatility from drought, livestock disease, and geopolitical disruptions.

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The two-customer concentration at The Marzetti Company warrants specific attention beyond the headline percentages. The Chick-fil-A relationship spans both the Foodservice channel—supply through multiple distributors to chain restaurant locations—and an exclusive retail licensing arrangement for Chick-fil-A-branded sauces and dressings in the grocery channel. If either dimension of this relationship were disrupted through contract restructuring or a menu-driven shift, the combined 29% revenue exposure could weigh on results across both segments simultaneously. The top five Retail customers separately accounted for 62% of the Retail segment's net sales in fiscal 2025, adding a further layer of segment-level dependency.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

From The Marzetti Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 202665d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top five Retail customers (62.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top five Foodservice direct customers (53.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE17.2%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta0.34
Dividend3.68%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.40bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$115+5.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerChick-fil-A29%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total net sales attributed to Chick-fil-A, including the Retail sales resulting from the exclusive license agreement and the Foodservice sales, totaled 29%'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net sales attributed to Walmart Inc. ("Walmart") totaled 19%, 18% and 18% of consolidated net sales for 2025'
  • HIGHCustomertop five Retail customers62%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top five Retail customers accounted for 62%...of this segment's total net sales in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomertop five Foodservice direct customers53%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top five Foodservice direct customers accounted for 53%...of this segment's total net sales in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -1.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Earnings Growth
4.6
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 4.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 65d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $104.88Resistance $114.75

Price Targets

$102
$139
A.Upside+27.3%
A.R:R4.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts11
Consensus3.8/5
Avg Target$159

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (65d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MZTI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $108.92: Concentration risk — Customer: top five Retail customers (62.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five Foodservice direct customers (53.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $102.46. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the MZTI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $138.68 (+27.3% upside). Prior stop was $102.46. Stop-loss: $102.46.

What are the risks of investing in MZTI?

Concentration risk — Customer: top five Retail customers (62.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top five Foodservice direct customers (53.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.6): -1.5.

Is MZTI overvalued or undervalued?

The Marzetti Company trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MZTI?

11 analysts cover MZTI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $159.

What does The Marzetti Company do?The Marzetti Company manufactures specialty food products across Retail (dressings, croutons, frozen breads, dips) and...

The Marzetti Company manufactures specialty food products across Retail (dressings, croutons, frozen breads, dips) and Foodservice (custom sauces, dressings, frozen breads) segments in the United States. Revenue is concentrated around Chick-fil-A (29% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025) and Walmart (19%), with 3,700 employees and 14 food plants.

Related stocks: SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp.) · CENTA (Central Garden & Pet Company) · CENT (Central Garden & Pet Company) · HLF (Herbalife Ltd.) · MKC (McCormick & Company, Incorporat)
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