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The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) is an Ohio-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products sold through Retail and Foodservice channels, with 3,700 employees and 14 food plants in the U.S. Retail brands include Marzetti dressings/dips, Sister... Read more

$129.22+24.6% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#11 of 26 Packaged Foods
Stop $120.64Target $160.95(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$185.00+43.2%5 analysts
$160.95our TP
$129.22price
$185.00mean
$232

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 25%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.7
P/E (Fwd)17.6
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth1.7%
Beta0.49
Dividend3.11%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C3.44bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$95-26.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerChick-fil-A29%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total net sales attributed to Chick-fil-A...totaled 29%, 28% and 26% of consolidated net sales for 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomerWalmart19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net sales attributed to Walmart Inc. ("Walmart") totaled 19%, 18% and 18% of consolidated net sales for 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Greg Hughes appointed to Board of Directors as Class I director effective Feb 11, 2026. No material interest in any Company transaction. Standard non-employee director compensation.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.6
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $124.25Resistance $146.86

Price Targets

$121
$161
A.Upside+24.6%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MZTI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $129.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $120.64. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the MZTI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $160.95 (+24.6% upside). Prior stop was $120.64. Stop-loss: $120.64.

What are the risks of investing in MZTI?

Leverage penalty (D/E 3.8): -1.5; Earnings in 4 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MZTI overvalued or undervalued?

The Marzetti Company trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 17.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MZTI?

11 analysts cover MZTI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $185.

What does The Marzetti Company do?The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) is an Ohio-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products...

The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) is an Ohio-based manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products sold through Retail and Foodservice channels, with 3,700 employees and 14 food plants in the U.S. Retail brands include Marzetti dressings/dips, Sister Schubert's rolls, New York Bakery breads, and licensed products (Chick-fil-A, Olive Garden, Buffalo Wild Wings). Chick-fil-A and Walmart together represent ~48% of consolidated net sales.

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