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The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $113.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Chick-fil-A (29.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (19.0%).

The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) manufactures and markets specialty food products across Retail and Foodservice segments in the U.S., including salad dressings, frozen breads, and licensed restaurant sauces. Revenue comes from national retailers, food brokers,... Read more

$113.89+21.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#18 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.98%
IncomeYield3.51%(5y avg 1.99%)Payout61.03%
Stop $107.71Target $138.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$159.40+40.0%5 analysts
$138.68our TP
$113.89price
$159.40mean
$204

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $113.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Chick-fil-A (29.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (19.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 92d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — The Marzetti Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Chick-fil-A (29.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (19.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.8
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE17.2%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta0.39
Dividend3.51%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$95-16.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerChick-fil-A29%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total net sales attributed to Chick-fil-A, including the Retail sales resulting from the exclusive license agreement and the Foodservice sales, totaled 29%, 28% and 26% of consolidated net sales for 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerWalmart19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Net sales attributed to Walmart Inc. ("Walmart") totaled 19%, 18% and 18% of consolidated net sales for 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHCustomertop-5 Retail customers62%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top five Retail customers accounted for 62%, 59% and 59% of this segment’s total net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHCustomertop-5 Foodservice direct customers53%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top five Foodservice direct customers accounted for 53%, 53% and 58% of this segment’s total net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-11Item 5.02LOW
    Greg Hughes appointed to Board of Directors as Class I director effective February 11, 2026. No committee assignments. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.4
Rsi
3.0
Macd
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -1.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Earnings Growth
4.6
Declining revenue: -1%
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 92d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $111.04Resistance $131.74

Price Targets

$108
$139
A.Upside+21.8%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (92d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MZTI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $113.89 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: Chick-fil-A (29.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (19.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $107.71. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the MZTI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $138.68 (+21.8% upside). Prior stop was $107.71. Stop-loss: $107.71.

What are the risks of investing in MZTI?

Concentration risk — Customer: Chick-fil-A (29.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: Walmart (19.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.5).

Is MZTI overvalued or undervalued?

The Marzetti Company trades at a P/E of 17.8 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MZTI?

11 analysts cover MZTI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $159.

What does The Marzetti Company do?The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) manufactures and markets specialty food products across Retail and...

The Marzetti Company (formerly Lancaster Colony) manufactures and markets specialty food products across Retail and Foodservice segments in the U.S., including salad dressings, frozen breads, and licensed restaurant sauces. Revenue comes from national retailers, food brokers, and national chain restaurant accounts; Chick-fil-A and Walmart are its two largest customers.

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