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MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,Hold5.6·$20.91+3.16%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is in a technical breakout with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats and an average upside surprise of 26.5%, but the stock has moved above its resistance target and carries a negative asymmetry ratio, limiting appeal for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Resistance Negative AsymmetryStable
  • Weak Balance Sheet QualityStable
  • Strong Earnings Beat RecordStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, (MUFG) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $20.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business;... Read more

$20.91+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#12 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.62%(5y avg 3.26%)Payout15.74%sustainable
Stop $19.79Target $20.76(resistance)A.R:R -3.4:1
Analyst target$20.12-3.8%2 analysts
$20.76our TP
$20.91price
$20.12mean
$18
$22

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $20.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,

Generated 2026-07-06T06:30:28Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)20.0
Mkt Cap$232.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn28.5%
ROE11.9%
Rev Growth
Beta0.31
Dividend2.62%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV69%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -3.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.57Resistance $21.18

Price Targets

$20
$21
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $20.91, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $20.76 (-0.7%), stop $19.79 (−5.7%), A.R:R -3.4:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MUFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.76 (+0.7% upside). Target $20.76 (-0.7%), stop $19.79 (−5.7%), A.R:R -3.4:1. Stop-loss: $19.79.

What are the risks of investing in MUFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

Is MUFG overvalued or undervalued?

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 20.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MUFG?

19 analysts cover MUFG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, do?Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services...

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business; Corporate and Wealth Management Business; Corporate Banking Business; Global Commercial Banking Business; Asset Management Business; Global CIB Business; and Market Business. The company offers retail, commercial, digital, corporate, and investment banking; wealth management; loans; settlement services; merger and acquisition; asset management; investor services; pensions; consulting services; bonds; forex and derivatives; equities; market trading; liabilities; treasury and other related operations; and liquidity and cash flow management services. It is also involved in trust banking; securities; leasing; venture capital; renewable energy; factoring; research; software development; information processing and technology; SR and IR support; investment trust and real estate asset management; investment advising; real estate brokering; credit solution business; credit and prepaid cards; loan guarantees; agency services for credit purchases; and servicer activities. The company was formerly known as Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. and changed its name to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. in October 2005. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

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