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MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,Sell5.3·$23.00+1.68%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is in a technical breakout with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats and an average upside surprise of 26.5%, but the stock has moved above its resistance target and carries a negative asymmetry ratio, limiting appeal for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Resistance Negative AsymmetryStable
  • Weak Balance Sheet QualityStable
  • Strong Earnings Beat RecordImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, (MUFG) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.00: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business;... Read more

$23.00-22.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#15 of 19 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.38%(5y avg 3.26%)Payout15.74%sustainable
Stop $21.91Target $22.62(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$20.93-9.0%2 analysts
$22.62our TP
$23.00price
$20.93mean
$18
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.00: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26

Recent Developments — Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,

Generated 2026-07-26T08:08:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 20269d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-22.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3
P/E (Fwd)22.2
Mkt Cap$258.1B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.8%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth
Beta0.31
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV39%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Piotroski F
2.2
Roe
3.1
Moat
4.4
Net Margin
10.0
Strong margins: 26%No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.77Resistance $23.08

Price Targets

$22
$23
A.Upside-22.3%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUFG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.00: Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $21.91. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MUFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.62 (-22.3% upside). Prior stop was $21.91. Stop-loss: $21.91.

What are the risks of investing in MUFG?

Target reached (-22.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is MUFG overvalued or undervalued?

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MUFG?

19 analysts cover MUFG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $21.

What does Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, do?Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services...

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business; Corporate and Wealth Management Business; Corporate Banking Business; Global Commercial Banking Business; Asset Management Business; Global CIB Business; and Market Business. The company offers retail, commercial, digital, corporate, and investment banking; wealth management; loans; settlement services; merger and acquisition; asset management; investor services; pensions; consulting services; bonds; forex and derivatives; equities; market trading; liabilities; treasury and other related operations; and liquidity and cash flow management services. It is also involved in trust banking; securities; leasing; venture capital; renewable energy; factoring; research; software development; information processing and technology; SR and IR support; investment trust and real estate asset management; investment advising; real estate brokering; credit solution business; credit and prepaid cards; loan guarantees; agency services for credit purchases; and servicer activities. The company was formerly known as Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. and changed its name to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. in October 2005. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Related stocks: JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · BNY (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)
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