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MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedHold6.0·$171.48+0.70%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MSA Safety has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats, a Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, and strong 15% operating margins, but a confirmed death cross price pattern with RSI at 32 and a flat 200-day moving average presents a significant near-term technical headwind that warrants patience before adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings QualityStable
  • High Quality Industrial BusinessStable
  • Death Cross Rsi 32Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Security & Protection Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $171.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 4.4%.

MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE categories through Americas and International segments, employing approximately 5,300 people as of December 31, 2025. Products are sold through more than 1,800... Read more

$171.48+4.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 10 Security & Protection Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.63%
IncomeYield1.26%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout28.61%sustainable
Stop $163.20Target $178.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$205.71+20.0%7 analysts
$178.97our TP
$171.48price
$205.71mean
$225

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $171.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 4.4%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.4%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.1
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$6.6B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE22.8%
Rev Growth10.0%
Beta0.94
Dividend1.26%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV44%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.5
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
6.5
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $155.78Resistance $175.00

Price Targets

$163
$179
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $171.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Thin upside margin: 4.4%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $178.97 (+4.4%), stop $163.20 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $178.97 (+4.4% upside). Target $178.97 (+4.4%), stop $163.20 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $163.20.

What are the risks of investing in MSA?

Thin upside margin: 4.4%.

Is MSA overvalued or undervalued?

MSA Safety Incorporated trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MSA?

11 analysts cover MSA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $206.

What does MSA Safety Incorporated do?MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE...

MSA Safety designs, manufactures, and sells safety products across detection, fire service, and industrial PPE categories through Americas and International segments, employing approximately 5,300 people as of December 31, 2025. Products are sold through more than 1,800 authorized distributor locations worldwide, with no individual customer exceeding 10% of annual sales.

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