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MPLTMapLight Therapeutics, Inc.Sell4.0·$35.04-5.53%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MapLight Therapeutics shows weak fundamental quality, extreme insider selling, and a streak of earnings misses, though an overbought bounce shows some near-term buying interest.

Thesis pillars

  • Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • Weak Fundamental QualityStable
  • Extreme Insider SellingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. (MPLT) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.04: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

MapLight Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing circuit-specific drugs for central nervous system disorders, using a discovery platform that links neural circuit activity to disease behaviors. Its lead candidate, ML-007C-MA, a fixed-dose muscarinic... Read more

$35.04+5.2% A.UpsideScore 4.0/10#240 of 253 Biotechnology
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-5.69%
Stop $32.59Target $36.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$39.55+12.9%11 analysts
$36.86our TP
$35.04price
$39.55mean
$30
$48

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.04: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.

About MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.

MapLight Therapeutics has no products approved for commercial sale and reported a net loss of $161.2 million for 2025, widening from $77.6 million in 2024, as it advances ML-007C-MA, a fixed-dose muscarinic agonist combined with a peripheral anticholinergic, through Phase 2 trials for schizophrenia (ZEPHYR) and Alzheimer's disease psychosis (VISTA). The FDA granted the program Fast Track designation in December 2025 for treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Alzheimer's disease psychosis. The company's accumulated deficit reached $360.5 million as of December 31, 2025.

MapLight generates no product revenue and instead funds research and development, manufacturing and clinical trial costs through equity issuances, with substantially all of its losses tied to platform development, clinical trials and general administrative costs. Its lead program, ML-007C-MA, targets M1 and M4 muscarinic receptors in the brain while pairing the agonist with a peripherally acting anticholinergic designed to limit the procholinergic side effects that have limited rival muscarinic drugs such as Bristol Myers Squibb's Cobenfy (xanomeline-trospium). The company also advances ML-004, a 5-HT1B/1D agonist in a Phase 2 trial for autism spectrum disorder, and several earlier-stage discovery programs (ML-009, ML-055, ML-021) built on its optogenetics, single-cell transcriptomics and STARmap discovery platform developed with the University of Edinburgh. Because none of these programs have generated revenue, spending is expected to increase substantially as trials advance toward regulatory filings.

Show full overview

MapLight's near-term value is concentrated in a single dosing regimen of ML-007C-MA across two indications: the ZEPHYR trial is expected to reach its 300-participant enrollment target in April 2026 with topline results in the third quarter of 2026, while the VISTA trial in Alzheimer's disease psychosis is not expected to report until the second half of 2027. A negative readout in either trial, given that both rely on the same fixed-dose combination and CSF exposure target established in the company's Phase 1 Study 013, could simultaneously undermine both indications rather than isolate the setback to one program.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — MapLight Therapeutics, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jun 18, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: CFO Vishwas Setia separated effective June 18, 2026 following a human-resources violation review, unrelated to financial or clinical matters. Jonathan Gillis, the company's Chief Administrative and Accounting Officer, was appointed interim CFO effective immediately. No severance paid to Setia.

Generated 2026-07-07T13:21:48Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: ML-007C-MA (lead product candidate)
Target reached (-1.8% upside)
Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-8.5
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA-6.6
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-81.0%
Rev Growth
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.80neutral
IV195%elevated
Max Pain$23-35.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineML-007C-MA (lead product candidate)
    10-K Item 1: 'Our lead product candidate, ML-007C-MA, is a fixed-dose combination of an M1/M4 muscarinic agonist, ML-007, co-formulated with a peripherally acting anticholinergic'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Vishwas Setia separated effective June 18, 2026 following a human-resources violation review, unrelated to financial or clinical matters. Jonathan Gillis, the company's Chief Administrative and Accounting Officer, was appointed interim CFO effective immediately. No severance paid to Setia.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOW
    Directors Robert Malenka and Jim Trenkle will not stand for reelection at the June 23, 2026 annual meeting; decisions were not due to any disagreement with the company. Board nominated Martin Babler and Troy Cox as replacement Class I director nominees.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.96%=EXTREMEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.1>=5.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $26.73Resistance $37.61

Price Targets

$33
$37
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPLT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $35.04: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.59. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPLT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.86 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $32.59. Stop-loss: $32.59.

What are the risks of investing in MPLT?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: ML-007C-MA (lead product candidate); Target reached (-1.8% upside); Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0).

Is MPLT overvalued or undervalued?

MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPLT?

18 analysts cover MPLT with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $40.

What does MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. do?MapLight Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing circuit-specific drugs for central...

MapLight Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing circuit-specific drugs for central nervous system disorders, using a discovery platform that links neural circuit activity to disease behaviors. Its lead candidate, ML-007C-MA, a fixed-dose muscarinic agonist/antagonist combination, is in Phase 2 trials (ZEPHYR and VISTA) for schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease psychosis and received FDA Fast Track designation in December 2025. The company has no approved products and funds development through equity financing, reporting a $161.2 million net loss and $360.5 millio

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