Martin Marietta is an industry growth leader with best-in-class margins, but the stock trades at a stretched valuation (25.7x forward earnings, PEG 2.86) with only 4.4% upside to the analyst price target and a failed asymmetry gate — the setup favors patience over new capital deployment.
Thesis pillars
- Growth Leader At Premium Valuation→Stable
- Thin Upside Unfavorable Geometry→Stable
- Fcf Quality Gap Earnings Vs Cash→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Basic Materials · Building Materials
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $508.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
The Company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of approximately 400 quarries, mines and distribution yards in 28 states, Canada and The Bahamas. In 2025, aggregates generated 88% of the Company's total reportable segment gross profit. As of... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $508.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-03Recent Developments — Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Aug 18, 2026 MEDIUM Item 1.02: **4123 Parklake Avenue** **Raleigh , North Carolina** **(Address of principal executive offices)** | | **27612** **(Zip Code)** Registrant's telephone number, including area code: 919-781-4550 **Not Applicable** **(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)** Check the appropria...
Latest news
- NEWS Martin Marietta Materials Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Martin Marietta Materials Inc. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS What To Expect From Martin Marietta Materials’s (MLM) Q2 Earnings - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS What To Expect From Martin Marietta Materials’s (MLM) Q2 Earnings - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS What To Expect From Martin Marietta Materials’s (MLM) Q2 Earnings - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T00:27:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-18Item 1.02MEDIUM**4123 Parklake Avenue** **Raleigh , North Carolina** **(Address of principal executive offices)** | | **27612** **(Zip Code)** Registrant's telephone number, including area code: 919-781-4550 **Not Applicable** **(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)** Check the appropria...SEC filing →
- 2026-08-04Item 5.02MEDIUM. Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On August 4, 2026, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (the "Company") announced that the Company has promoted Michael J.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $508.94, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $595.39 (+17.0%), stop $487.48 (−4.4%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $595.39 (+17.0% upside). Target $595.39 (+17.0%), stop $487.48 (−4.4%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $487.48.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Weak growth.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts cover MLM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $662.
What does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. do?The Company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of approximately 400 quarries,...
The Company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of approximately 400 quarries, mines and distribution yards in 28 states, Canada and The Bahamas. In 2025, aggregates generated 88% of the Company's total reportable segment gross profit. As of December 31, 2025, Martin Marietta also provides other building materials, namely, cement, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services in targeted markets where the Company has a notable aggregates position.