Mueller Industries is a high-quality industrial franchise — 28% ROE, 19% margins, best-in-class peer ranking — that has essentially reached the analyst-derived price target, leaving roughly 0.5% upside against 6% downside; the setup no longer supports adding capital despite the underlying business quality.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Franchise Near Target→Stable
- Negative Asymmetry At Target→Stable
- Execution Recovery After Miss Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Sell if holding. At $62.80, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of products we manufacture is broad: copper tube and fittings; line sets; steel nipples; brass rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact... Read more
Sell if holding. At $62.80, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Mueller Industries, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Aug 10, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Item 8.01 | Other Events. On August 6, 2026 the Registrant issued a press release announcing that its Board has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 17.5 cents per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid September 18, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2026.
Latest news
- NEWS Is Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) Overvalued After 5.7% Rally? GF - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS MLI Reports Strong Revenue Growth and Positive Outlook - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Mueller Industries Shares Rise After Higher Fiscal Q2 Results, Northcoast Research Upgrade - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Is Mueller Industries Inc (MLI) Undervalued After Q2 Earnings? E - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Mueller Industries second quarter sales rise to $1.43B - grafa.com — grafa.com positive
Generated 2026-09-04T13:22:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-08-10Item 5.02MEDIUMItem 8.01 | Other Events. On August 6, 2026 the Registrant issued a press release announcing that its Board has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 17.5 cents per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid September 18, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $62.80, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $58.77. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $68.00 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $58.77. Stop-loss: $58.77.
Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Mueller Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.1 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover MLI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $80.
What does Mueller Industries, Inc. do?Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of...
Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of products we manufacture is broad: copper tube and fittings; line sets; steel nipples; brass rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact extrusions; refrigeration valves and fittings; compressed gas valves; pressure vessels; insulated flexible duct systems; and high-quality wire and cable solutions.