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MLIMueller Industries, Inc.Sell6.3·$56.50-1.60%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mueller Industries is a high-quality industrial franchise — 28% ROE, 19% margins, best-in-class peer ranking — that has essentially reached the analyst-derived price target, leaving roughly 0.5% upside against 6% downside; the setup no longer supports adding capital despite the underlying business quality.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Franchise Near TargetStable
  • Negative Asymmetry At TargetStable
  • Execution Recovery After Miss StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. At $56.50, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of products we manufacture is broad: copper tube and fittings; line sets; steel nipples; brass rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact... Read more

$56.50+12.1% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 11 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.99%
IncomeYield1.24%(5y avg 1.14%)Payout14.42%sustainable
Stop $53.86Target $63.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$74.50+31.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $56.50, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 19, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.8
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$12.5B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn19.4%
ROE28.3%
Rev Growth19.3%
Beta1.12
Dividend1.24%
Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.64bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
5.5
Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Moderate
RSI
19 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.53Resistance $70.95

Price Targets

$54
$63
A.Upside+12.1%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MLI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $56.50, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 19, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $53.86. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.32 (+12.1% upside). Prior stop was $53.86. Stop-loss: $53.86.

What are the risks of investing in MLI?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN; Negative momentum.

Is MLI overvalued or undervalued?

Mueller Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MLI?

6 analysts cover MLI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Mueller Industries, Inc. do?Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of...

Mueller Industries, Inc. (the Company) is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, and aluminum products. The range of products we manufacture is broad: copper tube and fittings; line sets; steel nipples; brass rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact extrusions; refrigeration valves and fittings; compressed gas valves; pressure vessels; insulated flexible duct systems; and high-quality wire and cable solutions.

Related stocks: GPGI (GPGI, Inc.) · CMC (Commercial Metals Company) · WOR (Worthington Enterprises, Inc.) · PRLB (Proto Labs, Inc.) · CRS (Carpenter Technology Corporatio)
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