Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.23
- ▸Attractively valued
MLI · Why this verdict
Why Mueller Industries (MLI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With ROE of 28%, 19% operating margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, the business ranks at or near the top of its industrial peer group on quality metrics; however, the stock has essentially reached the analyst-derived price target, leaving just about 0.5% headroom to the upside. Quality breakdown | ROE sustains above 20% and operating margin remains above 15% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst estimates have fallen approximately 8% over the past 30 days, and two of the prior three quarters were misses, suggesting near-term earnings power may be overstated relative to current positioning. | ||
The asymmetry gate has failed: with roughly 0.5% upside to the analyst target against approximately 6% downside, the current geometry produces an unfavorable risk/reward ratio of about 0.08-to-1 — a setup that does not support new capital deployment at this price level. Engine gate (failed) | Price retreats to provide at least 10% upside to the analyst target before a new entry setup emerges. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum (above all moving averages, MACD positive) and a PEG of 0.28 suggest the growth quality remains significantly underpriced relative to its earnings multiple, which could attract fresh buyers and keep the stock elevated near target. | ||
Following two consecutive quarterly misses (February 2026 at -21.4% and October 2025 at -8.3%), the most recent quarter delivered a strong beat of +28.5%; the prior miss pattern and analyst estimates trending down 8% over 30 days indicate the execution recovery remains unconfirmed by the broader analyst community. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss streak has genuinely ended. | →Stable |
| CounterA +28.5% beat in the most recent quarter is decisive outperformance — not a marginal recovery — and may mark a genuine earnings inflection rather than a one-quarter anomaly. | ||
The stock has established a breakout configuration — golden cross confirmed, all major moving averages bullishly aligned, rising on-balance volume confirming accumulation, and RSI at 49 leaving room to run without entering overbought territory. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and closes above $145 within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe breakout is technically confirmed but the gap between price and analyst target has effectively closed, meaning momentum is running without meaningful forward upside to sustain it. | ||
With ROE of 28%, 19% operating margins, and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9, the business ranks at or near the top of its industrial peer group on quality metrics; however, the stock has essentially reached the analyst-derived price target, leaving just about 0.5% headroom to the upside.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE sustains above 20% and operating margin remains above 15% for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterAnalyst estimates have fallen approximately 8% over the past 30 days, and two of the prior three quarters were misses, suggesting near-term earnings power may be overstated relative to current positioning.
The asymmetry gate has failed: with roughly 0.5% upside to the analyst target against approximately 6% downside, the current geometry produces an unfavorable risk/reward ratio of about 0.08-to-1 — a setup that does not support new capital deployment at this price level.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Price retreats to provide at least 10% upside to the analyst target before a new entry setup emerges.
CounterStrong momentum (above all moving averages, MACD positive) and a PEG of 0.28 suggest the growth quality remains significantly underpriced relative to its earnings multiple, which could attract fresh buyers and keep the stock elevated near target.
Following two consecutive quarterly misses (February 2026 at -21.4% and October 2025 at -8.3%), the most recent quarter delivered a strong beat of +28.5%; the prior miss pattern and analyst estimates trending down 8% over 30 days indicate the execution recovery remains unconfirmed by the broader analyst community.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss streak has genuinely ended.
CounterA +28.5% beat in the most recent quarter is decisive outperformance — not a marginal recovery — and may mark a genuine earnings inflection rather than a one-quarter anomaly.
The stock has established a breakout configuration — golden cross confirmed, all major moving averages bullishly aligned, rising on-balance volume confirming accumulation, and RSI at 49 leaving room to run without entering overbought territory.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average and closes above $145 within 6 months.
CounterThe breakout is technically confirmed but the gap between price and analyst target has effectively closed, meaning momentum is running without meaningful forward upside to sustain it.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mueller Industries is a high-quality industrial franchise — 28% ROE, 19% margins, best-in-class peer ranking — that has essentially reached the analyst-derived price target, leaving roughly 0.5% upside against 6% downside; the setup no longer supports adding capital despite the underlying business quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 9.2 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.6 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 59% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 1.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
- ▸Estimates falling as sentiment proxy (-8.0%)
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $14,433,209 (0.116% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
- ▸Estimates down -8.0% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 124.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.34
Upside
+12.1%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 19, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 2.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Value at 8.5, and Technical at 8.4; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Insider at 3.4, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise Near Target
Trip ifROE falls below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling quality deterioration.
- P2Negative Asymmetry At Target
Trip ifPrice breaks sustainably above $145 for 10 consecutive trading days, implying analysts have raised targets and the geometry has reset.
- P3Execution Recovery After Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next quarterly report, confirming the miss pattern has resumed.
- P4Breakout Momentum All Ma Aligned
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume turns negative for 20 or more consecutive trading days.