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Carpenter Technology Corporatio (CRS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $406.37 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant,"... Read more

$406.37+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 9 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.50%
IncomeYield0.20%(5y avg 1.29%)Payout8.42%sustainable
Stop $378.30Target $466.18(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$457.22+12.5%9 analysts
$466.18our TP
$406.37price
$457.22mean
$500

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $406.37 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Carpenter Technology Corporatio

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.6
P/E (Fwd)31.8
Mkt Cap$20.1B
EV/EBITDA26.8
Profit Mgn15.8%
ROE24.9%
Rev Growth11.6%
Beta1.24
Dividend0.20%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV52%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    - Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Board Expansion and Brian J.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02MEDIUM
    - Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 12, 2026, Tony R.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
3.8
Quality Rank
7.6
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $390.00Resistance $475.69

Price Targets

$378
$466
A.Upside+14.7%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.1% upside)
! Momentum score 2.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $406.37 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $378.30. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $466.18 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $378.30. Stop-loss: $378.30.

What are the risks of investing in CRS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is CRS overvalued or undervalued?

Carpenter Technology Corporatio trades at a P/E of 42.6 (forward 31.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CRS?

14 analysts cover CRS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $457.

What does Carpenter Technology Corporatio do?Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of...

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant," "Issuer," "we" and "our" refer to Carpenter Technology Corporation.

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