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CRSCarpenter Technology CorporatioHold6.0·$379.73
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A high-quality industrial compounder with four consecutive earnings beats and strong financial health metrics that has already exceeded its price target; the elevated forward earnings multiple of 44.5 times, overbought technical readings, and below-average free cash flow conversion suggest the near-term setup favors patience over new capital deployment.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Earnings Compounder↑Improving
  • Stretched Valuation Above Target→Stable
  • Overbought Technicals Falling Volume↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Carpenter Technology Corporatio (CRS) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $379.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant,"... Read more

$379.73+28.0% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 10 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.27%
IncomeYield0.21%(5y avg 0.50%)Payout7.60%sustainable
Stop $361.82Target $486.11(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.5:1
Analyst target$558.75+47.1%8 analysts
$486.11our TP
$379.73price
$558.75mean
$700

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $379.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.2
P/E (Fwd)24.0
Mkt Cap$18.9B
EV/EBITDA23.2
Profit Mgn17.0%
ROE25.8%
Rev Growth12.6%
Beta1.29
Dividend0.21%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.97neutral
IV62%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    - Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Ken J.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-07-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    - Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 24, 2026, Brian J.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 4.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $373.01Resistance $422.07

Price Targets

$362
$486
A.Upside+28.0%
A.R:R4.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $379.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $486.11 (+28.0%), stop $361.82 (−4.9%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $486.11 (+28.0% upside). Target $486.11 (+28.0%), stop $361.82 (−4.9%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $361.82.

What are the risks of investing in CRS?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is CRS overvalued or undervalued?

Carpenter Technology Corporatio trades at a P/E of 36.2 (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CRS?

15 analysts cover CRS with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $559.

What does Carpenter Technology Corporatio do?Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of...

Carpenter Technology Corporation, founded in 1889, is engaged in the manufacturing, fabrication and distribution of specialty metals. As used throughout this report, unless the context requires otherwise, the terms "Carpenter," "Carpenter Technology," "Company," "Registrant," "Issuer," "we" and "our" refer to Carpenter Technology Corporation.

Related stocks: CMC (Commercial Metals Company) · MLI (Mueller Industries, Inc.) · GPGI (GPGI, Inc.) · ATI (ATI Inc.) · WOR (Worthington Enterprises, Inc.)
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