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GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.57: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.00; Below-average business quality.

GPGI (formerly CompoSecure) is a permanent capital platform owning CompoSecure (~75%+ global metal payment card market share, 32M+ cards delivered in 2025, customers include American Express, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One) and Husky Holdings (injection molding equipment for... Read more

$11.57+61.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 9 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-2.44%
IncomeYield0.09%Payout0.00%sustainable
Stop $11.19Target $18.70(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.1:1
Analyst target$22.00+90.1%3 analysts
$18.70our TP
$11.57price
$22.00mean
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.57: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Val9.5Qual1.9Grw10.0Mom1.8Sent6.4Ins7.5Peer3.8Tech6.3Risk1.65.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — GPGI, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA-44.7
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-25.9%
Rev Growth—
Beta1.00
Dividend0.09%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C13.00bearish
IV86%elevated
Max Pain$3-78.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Volatile — 10.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.3
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
7.0
High short interest justified: 22%Elevated put/call: 13.00High IV: 86%Above max pain $2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
3.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.2
Cash-burning: FCF -340738% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 4.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.54Resistance $17.96

Price Targets

$11
$19
A.Upside+61.6%
A.R:R4.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $11.57: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 22%; Elevated put/call ratio: 13.00; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.19. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.70 (+61.6% upside). Prior stop was $11.19. Stop-loss: $11.19.

What are the risks of investing in GPGI?

Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).

Is GPGI overvalued or undervalued?

GPGI, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPGI?

9 analysts cover GPGI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.

What does GPGI, Inc. do?GPGI (formerly CompoSecure) is a permanent capital platform owning CompoSecure (~75%+ global metal payment card market...

GPGI (formerly CompoSecure) is a permanent capital platform owning CompoSecure (~75%+ global metal payment card market share, 32M+ cards delivered in 2025, customers include American Express, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One) and Husky Holdings (injection molding equipment for food/packaging/medical, ~4,000 customers in 140 countries, acquired Jan 2026). Husky generates ~65% of revenue from recurring aftermarket molds, parts, and services.

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