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GPGI, Inc. (GPGI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.15: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

GPGI, Inc. is a diversified permanent capital holding company comprising two operating businesses: CompoSecure (premium metal credit card manufacturing and secure authentication) and Husky (injection molding equipment for food, packaging, and medical markets). Management... Read more

$15.15+36.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 9 Metal Fabrication
Stop $14.13Target $20.68(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$24.33+60.6%3 analysts
$20.68our TP
$15.15price
$24.33mean
$26

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.15: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA-335.0
Profit Mgn-227.3%
ROE-272.8%
Rev Growth-100.0%
Beta1.16
Dividend0.07%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV87%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 10d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.07Resistance $17.58

Price Targets

$14
$21
A.Upside+36.5%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-11 (10d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GPGI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.15: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10 and A.R:R 3.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $14.13. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GPGI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.68 (+36.1% upside). Prior stop was $14.13. Stop-loss: $14.13.

What are the risks of investing in GPGI?

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is GPGI overvalued or undervalued?

GPGI, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GPGI?

9 analysts cover GPGI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $24.

What does GPGI, Inc. do?GPGI, Inc. is a diversified permanent capital holding company comprising two operating businesses: CompoSecure (premium...

GPGI, Inc. is a diversified permanent capital holding company comprising two operating businesses: CompoSecure (premium metal credit card manufacturing and secure authentication) and Husky (injection molding equipment for food, packaging, and medical markets). Management services are provided by Resolute Holdings under long-term management agreements.

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