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MFCManulife Financial CorporationHold5.8·$44.00+1.64%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Manulife Financial offers an attractive fundamental profile — a wide economic moat, a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9, a PEG of 0.78, and strong growth — but the stock has moved past its price target, three of the last four quarters have missed earnings estimates, and the risk/reward geometry has turned unfavorable at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Franchise QualityStable
  • Discounted Growth ValuationStable
  • Price Above Target No UpsideDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Life

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other... Read more

$44.00-33.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#9 of 16 Insurance - Life
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.09%
IncomeYield3.16%(5y avg 4.54%)Payout50.14%sustainable
Stop $42.99Target $51.28(default +15%)A.R:R -5.7:1
Analyst target$34.66-21.2%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.3
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$74.0B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn20.3%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta0.78
Dividend3.16%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$440.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -5.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.91Resistance $44.69

Price Targets

$43
$51
A.Upside-33.9%
A.R:R-5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-33.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MFC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $44.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $51.28 (+16.5%), stop $42.99 (−2.3%), A.R:R -5.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.28 (-33.9% upside). Target $51.28 (+16.5%), stop $42.99 (−2.3%), A.R:R -5.7:1. Stop-loss: $42.99.

What are the risks of investing in MFC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.6% away).

Is MFC overvalued or undervalued?

Manulife Financial Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.3 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MFC?

19 analysts cover MFC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $35.

What does Manulife Financial Corporation do?Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United...

Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in the United States, Canada, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and Annuity Products; and Corporate and Other segments. The Wealth and Asset Management Businesses segment offers investment advice and solutions to retirement, retail, and institutional clients through multiple distribution channels, including agents and brokers affiliated with the company, independent securities brokerage firms and financial advisors pension plan consultants, and banks. The Insurance and Annuity Products segment provides deposit and credit products; and individual life insurance, individual and group long-term care insurance, and guaranteed and partially guaranteed annuity products through multiple distribution channels, including insurance agents, brokers, banks, financial planners, and direct marketing. The Corporate and Other segment is involved in the property and casualty reinsurance businesses; and run-off reinsurance operations, including variable annuities, and accident and health. The company also manages timberland and agricultural portfolios; and engages in the insurance agency, broker dealer, investment counseling, portfolio and mutual fund management, property and casualty insurance, and fund and investment management businesses. In addition, it provides integrated banking products and services, as well as offers asset management services. The company was incorporated in 1887 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: LNC (Lincoln National Corporation) · PRI (Primerica, Inc.) · JXN (Jackson Financial Inc.) · GL (Globe Life Inc.) · AFL (AFLAC Incorporated)
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