Medpace is a high-quality, fast-growing contract research business with consistent double-digit earnings beats and strong returns on capital, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst target with virtually no price headroom remaining, screens expensive at a forward P/E of roughly 25 times with a PEG above 2.8, and carries significant customer exposure to small biopharmaceutical clients representing over 80% of revenues.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Large Earnings Beats↓Deteriorating
- Compounder Quality Profile→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Wait for pullback to $561.64. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $578.50. Engine's entry $561.64 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device companies across 46 countries, employing approximately 6,200 staff. Revenue comes from fixed-fee clinical trial contracts; 82% of 2025 net revenue derived from small... Read more
Wait for pullback to $561.64. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $578.50. Engine's entry $561.64 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Medpace Holdings (NASDAQ: MEDP) CEO sells 7,238 shares at ~$600 - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Is Up 10.8% After Boosting 2026 Outlook And Retiring 17% Of Shares - Has The Bull Case Changed? — Sahm positive
- NEWS Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS MEDP|Medpace Holdings Inc|Price:577.204|Chg%:-7.726 - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS MEDP Investors Have Opportunity to Lead Medpace Holdings, Inc. Securities Fraud Lawsuit - InsideNoVa.com — InsideNoVa.com negative
Generated 2026-08-16T16:37:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomersmall biopharmaceutical companies82%10-K Item 1A: '82% and 13% of our net revenue was derived from small biopharmaceutical companies and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies, respectively'
- MEDIUMCustomertop ten customers35%10-K Item 1A: 'we derive approximately 35.1% of our net revenue from our top ten customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-04Item 5.02LOWBrad W. Hansman (age 43) appointed EVP Operations effective June 1, 2026, to perform principal operating officer functions alongside existing EVP Susan Burwig. Internal promotion from Senior Vice President. No departing officer.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02MEDIUMJesse Geiger notified intent to resign as President, effective May 31, 2026, to retire. No successor named in available filing text. No disagreement with Company cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $561.64. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $578.50. Engine's entry $561.64 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $664.34 (+14.8%), stop $527.92 (−9.6%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $664.34 (-12.5% upside). Target $664.34 (+14.8%), stop $527.92 (−9.6%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $527.92.
Concentration risk — Customer: small biopharmaceutical companies (82.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Medpace Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.0 (forward 30.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts cover MEDP with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $582.
What does Medpace Holdings, Inc. do?Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device...
Medpace Holdings provides full-service Phase I-IV clinical trial services to biotech, pharma, and medical device companies across 46 countries, employing approximately 6,200 staff. Revenue comes from fixed-fee clinical trial contracts; 82% of 2025 net revenue derived from small biopharmaceutical clients.