Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 8% upside surprise, 35% revenue growth, and 22.7% headroom to the analyst price target with a roughly 3-to-1 risk/reward ratio build a compelling fundamental case, but a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross in place blocks near-term entry and requires patience for technical conditions to clear.
Thesis pillars
- Sustained Earnings Beat Pattern→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- Death Cross Technical Block→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $295.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
LPL Financial Holdings supports over 32,000 independent financial advisors and approximately 1,200 financial institutions, custodying roughly $2.4 trillion in brokerage and advisory assets as the nation's largest independent broker-dealer. Revenue streams include advisory fees,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $295.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
About LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
LPL Financial Holdings custodies approximately $2.4 trillion in brokerage and advisory assets for more than 32,000 financial advisors and roughly 1,200 financial institutions across the United States — the nation's largest independent broker-dealer by advisor count. Advisory assets under custody reached $1,392.7 billion and brokerage assets totaled $977.9 billion as of December 31, 2025, with client cash programs holding $61.0 billion. LPL clears transactions through its self-clearing platform and serves independent contractor advisors, employee advisors, and Independent RIAs.
LPL earns revenue from advisory fees on wrap-fee and RIA platforms, brokerage commissions on variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and alternative investments, plus asset-based fees from product sponsors and subscription-based service fees. The client cash programs — two FDIC-insured bank sweep vehicles, a client cash account, and a money market account — generate a significant portion of total revenue, with fees negotiated with third-party bank counterparties and tied to prevailing interest rates. The Federal Reserve's rate reductions in 2024 and 2025 reduced cash program revenue, with further reductions possible. Back-office operations depend on Refinitiv US LLC ("BETAHost") for data processing and securities transaction support. LPL competes with wirehouses, regional broker-dealers, and RIA firms and states it has no direct competitor matching its model at the same scale.
Show full overview
LPL's interest-rate sensitivity is a defined risk in the 10-K: if the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its target rate, revenue from cash programs will be impacted. Contracts with third-party sweep banks at favorable pricing terms may expire, and a sustained low-rate environment weakens LPL's negotiating position with new bank counterparties. The 10-K also identifies that the expiration of contracts with favorable pricing or the inability to place deposits may result in revenue declines from this segment.
See also: Financial Services · Capital Markets
From LPL Financial Holdings Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — LPL Financial Holdings Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS KING STREET CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.'s LPL Financial Holdings Inc(LPLA) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA): Stephen Mandel Trims Holding - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey neutral
- NEWS LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA): Stephen Mandel Trims Holding - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Leelyn Smith LLC Invests $1.13 Million in LPL Financial Holdings Inc. $LPLA - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA): Billionaire Brian Higgins Is Buying This Stock - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
Generated 2026-07-06T05:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductclient cash programs10-K Item 1A: 'Our client cash programs generate a significant portion of our revenue'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyBETAHost (Refinitiv US LLC)10-K Item 1A: 'we have an agreement with Refinitiv US LLC ("BETAHost"), under which it provides us key operational support, including data processing services for securities transactions'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $295.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $357.88 (+21.2%), stop $274.52 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $357.88 (+21.2% upside). Target $357.88 (+21.2%), stop $274.52 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $274.52.
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
LPL Financial Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.6 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
22 analysts cover LPLA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $411.
What does LPL Financial Holdings Inc. do?LPL Financial Holdings supports over 32,000 independent financial advisors and approximately 1,200 financial...
LPL Financial Holdings supports over 32,000 independent financial advisors and approximately 1,200 financial institutions, custodying roughly $2.4 trillion in brokerage and advisory assets as the nation's largest independent broker-dealer. Revenue streams include advisory fees, brokerage commissions, and client cash sweep balances, with no single advisor exceeding 1% of advisory and commission revenue in 2025.