Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
- ▸Attractively valued
LPLA · Why this verdict
Why LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average upside surprise of 8%, a pattern that reflects consistent under-promising and over-delivering and demonstrates disciplined guidance management across all four recent reporting periods. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 5% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 35% revenue growth rate creates increasing pressure on the forward estimate base; as the revenue trajectory attracts more analyst attention, consensus estimates may reset higher and become progressively harder to beat, raising the bar for future outperformance. | ||
Revenue is growing at 35% year-over-year, placing the business near the top of its peer group for growth and establishing a top-line trajectory that supports a premium valuation multiple. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for at least two consecutive reported quarters, confirming the trajectory is structural rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 — flagged as a leverage penalty — limits the financial flexibility to invest in growth during a downturn without increasing risk; high-growth financial-services businesses can be particularly vulnerable to leverage during market dislocations. | ||
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 3.4% per 30 days and a death cross in place — a confirmed downtrend that constitutes a hard technical block on new entries despite the strong underlying fundamental profile. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive and price sustains above the long-term average for two consecutive months, clearing the technical block and allowing fundamental drivers to take over. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 59, indicating short-term recovery momentum building beneath the surface; death crosses formed after extended declines often represent lagging signals that resolve faster than the trend slope implies. | ||
With 22.7% headroom to the analyst price target and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 3.2-to-1, the geometric setup is materially attractive for investors who can wait for the technical downtrend to resolve before establishing a position. Price targets | Price advances to within 5% of the $362 analyst target within 12 months, confirming the fundamental re-rating is underway. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets tend to lag significant price moves in both directions; a large implied upside in a confirmed downtrend can reflect stale targets rather than embedded value, and near-term earnings risk could prompt downward target revisions before price recovers. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 — identified as a penalty in the scoring — combined with two medium-severity concentration risks flagged in regulatory filings, leaves less cushion if revenue or margins soften and constrains the quality score. Risk breakdown | Debt-to-equity falls below 0.8 over the next four quarters as the company reduces leverage while sustaining revenue growth. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 is not extreme in capital-markets businesses where leverage is operationally embedded; at 35% revenue growth, the company may service and reduce debt rapidly while sustaining returns. | ||
The company has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average upside surprise of 8%, a pattern that reflects consistent under-promising and over-delivering and demonstrates disciplined guidance management across all four recent reporting periods.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 5% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 35% revenue growth rate creates increasing pressure on the forward estimate base; as the revenue trajectory attracts more analyst attention, consensus estimates may reset higher and become progressively harder to beat, raising the bar for future outperformance.
Revenue is growing at 35% year-over-year, placing the business near the top of its peer group for growth and establishing a top-line trajectory that supports a premium valuation multiple.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 20% year-over-year for at least two consecutive reported quarters, confirming the trajectory is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 — flagged as a leverage penalty — limits the financial flexibility to invest in growth during a downturn without increasing risk; high-growth financial-services businesses can be particularly vulnerable to leverage during market dislocations.
The stock trades below its 200-day moving average with the trend slope declining at 3.4% per 30 days and a death cross in place — a confirmed downtrend that constitutes a hard technical block on new entries despite the strong underlying fundamental profile.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive and price sustains above the long-term average for two consecutive months, clearing the technical block and allowing fundamental drivers to take over.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI sits at 59, indicating short-term recovery momentum building beneath the surface; death crosses formed after extended declines often represent lagging signals that resolve faster than the trend slope implies.
With 22.7% headroom to the analyst price target and a risk/reward ratio of roughly 3.2-to-1, the geometric setup is materially attractive for investors who can wait for the technical downtrend to resolve before establishing a position.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances to within 5% of the $362 analyst target within 12 months, confirming the fundamental re-rating is underway.
CounterAnalyst price targets tend to lag significant price moves in both directions; a large implied upside in a confirmed downtrend can reflect stale targets rather than embedded value, and near-term earnings risk could prompt downward target revisions before price recovers.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 — identified as a penalty in the scoring — combined with two medium-severity concentration risks flagged in regulatory filings, leaves less cushion if revenue or margins soften and constrains the quality score.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 0.8 over the next four quarters as the company reduces leverage while sustaining revenue growth.
CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 is not extreme in capital-markets businesses where leverage is operationally embedded; at 35% revenue growth, the company may service and reduce debt rapidly while sustaining returns.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive earnings beats averaging 8% upside surprise, 35% revenue growth, and 22.7% headroom to the analyst price target with a roughly 3-to-1 risk/reward ratio build a compelling fundamental case, but a confirmed technical downtrend with a death cross in place blocks near-term entry and requires patience for technical conditions to clear.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.8 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 4.5 |
| Net margin | 2.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 39%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $613,149 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 2.8 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 41.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.82
Upside
+21.2%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Sentiment at 7.2, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.1, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sustained Earnings Beat Pattern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the four-quarter beat streak.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Death Cross Technical Block
Trip ifPrice crosses and holds above the 200-day moving average for 2 consecutive months with the 30-day slope turning positive.
- P4Material Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice reaches or exceeds the analyst target of $362 without a corresponding upward revision in the analyst consensus price target.
- P5Leverage Concentration Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.8 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.