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LAZLazard, Inc.Sell5.4·$41.10-1.84%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Lazard combines a wide economic moat, a return on equity of 34%, and a compelling valuation at 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.16, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—death cross, below all moving averages—and the dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe, making the near-term risk/reward unfavorable despite the underlying quality.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Forward Pe 10xImproving
  • Wide Moat Strong Quality BaseStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Lazard, Inc. (LAZ) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.10: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.60; Negative price momentum.

Founded in 1848, Lazard provides M&A, restructuring, and sovereign advisory through its Financial Advisory segment and active investment management through its Asset Management segment, with operations across more than 30 countries. The firm employed 3,309 full-time staff at... Read more

$41.10+0.3% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#40 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.78%(5y avg 4.83%)Payout98.52%at-risk
Stop $39.65Target $41.22(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.0:1
Analyst target$47.38+15.3%8 analysts
$41.22our TP
$41.10price
$47.38mean
$60

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.10: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.60; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202639d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (0.3% upside)
Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)10.7
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.1%
ROE25.7%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta1.42
Dividend4.78%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.60bearish
IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop ten Financial Advisory clients17%
    10-K Item 1: 'the ten largest fee paying clients constituted approximately 17% of our Financial Advisory segment net revenue'
  • LOWCustomertop ten Asset Management clients24%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our top ten clients accounted for 24% of our total assets under management'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.1
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
1.5
Volatility
2.1
Debt Equity
2.7
Days To Cover
3.5
Short Interest
4.5
Beta
5.3
Elevated put/call: 3.60High IV: 71%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
2.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MDividend: 4.8%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.0
Value Rank
5.6
Quality Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 1.5<4.5A.R:R 0.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $40.88Resistance $46.95

Price Targets

$40
$41
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.3% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0)
! momentum at 1.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LAZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $41.10: Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 3.60; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $39.65. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LAZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.22 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $39.65. Stop-loss: $39.65.

What are the risks of investing in LAZ?

Target reached (0.3% upside); Risk below floor (2.8 < 3.0).

Is LAZ overvalued or undervalued?

Lazard, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 10.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LAZ?

15 analysts cover LAZ with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Lazard, Inc. do?Founded in 1848, Lazard provides M&A, restructuring, and sovereign advisory through its Financial Advisory segment and...

Founded in 1848, Lazard provides M&A, restructuring, and sovereign advisory through its Financial Advisory segment and active investment management through its Asset Management segment, with operations across more than 30 countries. The firm employed 3,309 full-time staff at December 31, 2025; Financial Advisory fees are earned upon transaction completion while Asset Management fees are based on AUM market value.

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