Value
4.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.0x
- ▸PEG: 4.20
KAI · Why this verdict
Why Kadant (KAI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 23% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $312.9M versus $255.3M a year earlier, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue reaches the estimated $302.1M next quarter and stays above $300M. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue is below the latest quarter, so growth may be partly timing or acquisition-driven. | ||
Kadant beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +19.1% and $3.42 versus a $2.77 estimate in August 2026. Earnings | The November 3 report beats the consensus estimate for a fifth straight quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAfter repeated large beats, expectations may rise and the stock could fall on a smaller beat. | ||
At $262.39 the stock is 15.8% below the $303.88 analyst target, with 5.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.9. Targets | Price moves toward the $303.88 analyst target as earnings continue to beat. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterForward P/E of 19.4x and PEG of 4.03 are not cheap, so the valuation leaves limited room for disappointment. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 1.1% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising and RSI is 43. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it while volume accumulation continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA recovering setup after a death cross can fail, and short interest is 12%, signalling skepticism. | ||
Quality is solid at 6.3/10 with a 9/9 Piotroski score, and the dividend is considered safe, with the company a dividend aristocrat yielding 0.6%. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is raised again and quality stays above 6. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterReturn on equity and margins score only mid-range, and a 0.6% yield offers little income cushion. | ||
Revenue is growing 23% year over year, with the June 2026 quarter at $312.9M versus $255.3M a year earlier, and the company ranks as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue reaches the estimated $302.1M next quarter and stays above $300M.
CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue is below the latest quarter, so growth may be partly timing or acquisition-driven.
Kadant beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +19.1% and $3.42 versus a $2.77 estimate in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 3 report beats the consensus estimate for a fifth straight quarter.
CounterAfter repeated large beats, expectations may rise and the stock could fall on a smaller beat.
At $262.39 the stock is 15.8% below the $303.88 analyst target, with 5.5% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.9.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $303.88 analyst target as earnings continue to beat.
CounterForward P/E of 19.4x and PEG of 4.03 are not cheap, so the valuation leaves limited room for disappointment.
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 1.1% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising and RSI is 43.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it while volume accumulation continues.
CounterA recovering setup after a death cross can fail, and short interest is 12%, signalling skepticism.
Quality is solid at 6.3/10 with a 9/9 Piotroski score, and the dividend is considered safe, with the company a dividend aristocrat yielding 0.6%.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is raised again and quality stays above 6.
CounterReturn on equity and margins score only mid-range, and a 0.6% yield offers little income cushion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 4.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 8.8 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.1 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 25%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 6.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings today
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.56
Upside
+6.4%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.56 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.4, Catalyst at 7.2, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Value at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.56 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 8% from the current 23%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the November 3 report.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifStock price falls below the $247.97 stop level from the current $262.39.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Recovery
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.6.
- P5Solid Quality Dividend Safety
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from the current 9.