A forward earnings multiple of 9.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.14 frame an inexpensive consulting business with 24% upside to analyst targets, but three consecutive quarters of earnings misses and a 10% revenue contraction suggest the valuation discount reflects genuine operational deterioration rather than temporary mispricing.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Contracting Ten Percent→Stable
- Compelling Low Multiple Valuation→Stable
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Consulting Services
Sell if holding. At $74.99, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
ICF International, Inc. provides management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. The Company provides consulting and technology services across several key domains, such as... Read more
Sell if holding. At $74.99, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About ICF International, Inc.
About ICF International, Inc.
ICF International drew 43% of its $1,872.9 million in 2025 revenue from U.S. federal government contracts, down from 54% in 2024, while state, local, and international government clients contributed 24% and commercial clients grew to 33%, up from 25% a year earlier. The Reston, Virginia-based consultancy closed the year with a $3,405.0 million backlog and approximately 8,400 employees across 49 U.S. regional offices and 14 offices abroad, including the U.K., Belgium, Spain, India, and Canada.
ICF earns revenue as a prime contractor and, on some engagements, a subcontractor across five integrated service lines — Advisory, Program Implementation, Analytics, Digital, and Engagement Services — delivered through a single reportable operating segment. Half of 2025 revenue, 50%, came from fixed-price contracts that put cost-overrun risk on ICF rather than the client, up from 45% in 2023, while the remainder split between time-and-materials and cost-based arrangements typical of GSA Schedule and other indefinite-delivery, indefinite-quantity vehicles that require competing for individual task orders rather than relying on a steady multi-year revenue stream. Federal work is concentrated in energy and utility programs, public health and social-program evaluation, and cybersecurity and disaster-recovery mitigation, the last built on more than 25 years of post-disaster deployments following storms such as Katrina, Helene, and Milton. The December 2024 acquisition of Applied Energy Group added over 100 utility management and demand-side energy experts to expand ICF's higher-margin commercial energy advisory business.
Show full overview
ICF's sharpest near-term risk is federal budget exposure, and 2025 supplied a live case study: the Department of Government Efficiency's actions drove contract terminations and temporary stop-work orders concentrated in the first and second quarters of 2025, a key reason federal revenue share fell to 43% from 54% the prior year even as the commercial book grew to 33% of revenue. Because federal contracts are typically funded incrementally as Congress appropriates money, any future continuing resolution, government shutdown, or debt-ceiling standoff carries the same mechanism for delaying or canceling the $3,405.0 million backlog ICF is counting on, particularly the unfunded portion that depends on appropriations ICF does not control.
See also: Industrials · Consulting Services
From ICF International, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — ICF International, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ICF International (ICFI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS ICF International (ICFI) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - FinancialContent — FinancialContent neutral
- NEWS The surprise hidden in ICF International (ICFI) last earnings report - newser.com — newser.com neutral
- NEWS The surprise hidden in ICF International (ICFI) last earnings report - Newser — Newser positive
- NEWS ICF International (ICFI) Expected to Announce Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $74.99, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $69.74. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $89.46 (+19.3% upside). Prior stop was $69.74. Stop-loss: $69.74.
Consecutive earnings misses (3); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
ICF International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.2 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover ICFI with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $105.
What does ICF International, Inc. do?ICF International, Inc. provides management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to...
ICF International, Inc. provides management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. The Company provides consulting and technology services across several key domains, such as strategy and public policy; energy and environmental sustainability; and climate resilience; digital transformation including information technology; modernization, cloud, cybersecurity, and data analytics; health and social programs including public health and education; international development and capacity building; disaster management and recovery planning; transportation, aviation, and infrastructure; and marketing and strategic communications. The company serves energy, environment, infrastructure, and disaster recovery; health and social programs; and security and other civilian and commercial markets; U.S. federal government departments and agencies, local government departments and agencies, international governments, and commercial clients. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.